War

There is discontent in the House of Saud, after the Kingdom’s unsuccessful military involvement in Yemen, and now talks of a potential ground operation in Syria, according to French political analyst Alain Rodier. Sputnik reports: The Saudi Kingdom isn’t doing very well — in addition to low oil prices that are ruining the nation’s economy, its ongoing military operation in Yemen against Houthi rebels is largely unsuccessful with Saudis beginning to lose their soldiers and planes. At the same time, Riyadh seems to be planning a military operation in Syria together with Turkey, Rodier said.

If you want our take - and let’s face it, you must because that’s why you’re here - we wouldn’t put too much faith in today’s announced Syrian “ceasefire” agreement.

Although the deal calls for the cessation of hostilities as of Saturday at midnight, you shouldn’t expect the Russians and the Iranians to halt their advance on Aleppo and likewise, you shouldn’t expect Turkey to stop shelling the Azaz corridor in a largely transparent effort to keep the supply lines to the rebels open.

Islamic State (IS) gunmen have cut the supply route of the Syrian government forces in the northern city of Aleppo, a day after their suicide bombers killed 150 people in Homs and Damascus. Xinhua English reports: The terror-designated group captured three points on the road to Aleppo overnight, said the pan-Arab al-Mayadeen TV. It added that the Syrian army is working on reopening the road, the only supply route for the Syrian government to the city. Other reports said a large convoy of reinforcements has been sent from eastern Aleppo to help recapture the road.

The United States and Russia have announced that a planned cessation of hostilities in Syria will come into effect at midnight on 27 February, according to an official joint statement.  Their statement said the truce did not include ISIS and the al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Front. The announcement follows multiple explosions on Sunday  in the Syrian cities of Damascus and Homs which claimed the lives of more than 1oo people.

President Obama is fully aware of the fragile coalition that exists between the U.S. and Russia which has enabled the Syrian regime to gain the upper hand. But he is also aware of the threat from Saudi Arabia and Turkey of wanting to intervene militarily on the ground in Syria, and takes the threat of invasion from NATO ally Turkey seriously. The Syrian war is reaching a climax and the battle lines are changing.