Mapped: The U.S. Cities at Risk of Sinking
Key Takeaways
- 25 out of the top 28 major U.S. cities are experiencing land subsidence, creating hidden but growing property risk.
- Houston, Fort Worth, Dallas, New York, and Chicago are all sinking at a rate of over 2 mm per year.
- Even slow, millimeter scale sinking can drive long term infrastructure damage and insurability challenges.
Across the United States, the ground beneath many major cities is gradually subsiding. Research published in Nature Cities shows that 25 of the 28 largest U.S. urban areas are sinking, a trend with serious implications for infrastructure durability, flood risk, and long-term resilience.
Created in partnership with Inigo, this visualization maps the major U.S. cities most at risk of sinking.
Why U.S. Cities Are Slowly Sinking
In coastal cities such as San Diego and New York, subsidence amplifies sea level rise and leaves communities more exposed to storm surge and tidal flooding. Inland cities face different pressures. In places like Houston, Phoenix, and Denver, groundwater extraction and soil compaction accelerate vertical land movement.
Because subsidence happens gradually, it often goes unnoticed. Still, Houston, Fort Worth, Dallas, New York, and Chicago are all sinking by more than 2.0 mm per year. Even small drops in elevation can strain pipelines, damage roads, and weaken building foundations.
| City | State | Vertical land movement (mm/year) |
|---|---|---|
| Houston | Texas | -5.2 |
| Fort Worth | Texas | -4.4 |
| Dallas | Texas | -3.8 |
| New York | New York | -2.4 |
| Chicago | Illinois | -2.3 |
| Columbus | Ohio | -1.9 |
| Seattle | Washington | -1.8 |
| Detroit | Michigan | -1.7 |
| Denver | Colorado | -1.7 |
| Charlotte | North Carolina | -1.5 |
| Indianapolis | Indiana | -1.4 |
| Washington | District of Columbia | -1.3 |
| Oklahoma City | Oklahoma | -1.3 |
| Nashville | Tennessee | -1.1 |
| San Antonio | Texas | -1.1 |
| San Diego | California | -1.1 |
| Portland | Oregon | -0.9 |
| San Francisco | California | -0.9 |
| Phoenix | Arizona | -0.8 |
| Las Vegas | Nevada | -0.8 |
| Austin | Texas | -0.8 |
| El Paso | Texas | -0.8 |
| Philadelphia | Pennsylvania | -0.7 |
| Los Angeles | California | -0.7 |
| Boston | Massachusetts | -0.5 |
Many other major cities, including Seattle, Detroit, and Denver, are sinking at rates between 1.5 and 2.0 mm per year.
A Growing Blind Spot in Property Risk
Although subtle, subsidence affects millions of people and tens of thousands of buildings, many of which sit in high damage risk zones. As elevation changes accumulate, mitigation and adaptation costs rise, often after damage has already occurred.
For property risk professionals, this data highlights an important reality. Climate risk does not move in only one direction. In some cities, the threat is not just rising water levels, but the ground itself sinking beneath critical infrastructure and assets.