Ranked: Countries Losing the Most (and Least) from Trump’s Tariffs

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September 30, 2025 8:33 am

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Julia Wendling

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The following content is sponsored by Hinrich Foundation

Ranked: Countries Losing the Most (and Least) from Trump’s Tariffs

Trump’s tariffs are hitting all of America’s major trading partners. But in U.S. trade, what matters isn’t just the tariffs a country faces—it’s how they stack up against competitors.

This visualization, made with the Hinrich Foundation, shows which countries are losing the most, and the least, from Trump’s tariffs.

The data seen here is sourced from Global Trade Alert and is calculated by comparing a jurisdiction’s own trade-weighted tariff rate against the average rate faced by its competitors on the exact same products.

Tariffs on America’s Top 20 Importing Countries

When Trump took office in January 2025, he quickly hit America’s top trading partners with steep tariffs. The rates, however, varied widely by country.

China and India took the hardest hit, as trade-weighted tariff rates climbed to 47.3% and 38.0% by September 2025. Brazil (29.6%) and Switzerland (19.3%) also faced steep rates.

By contrast, Ireland (6.6%) and the UK (7.1%) saw much milder tariffs, while Canada (19.4%) and Germany (18.8%) landed in the middle.

Which Countries Have a Relative “Trump Tariff Advantage”?

Global Trade Alert compared tariff rates across competitors to rank which countries gained or lost ground. The final result is an estimate of relative tariff advantages (positive figures) and disadvantages (negative figures).

With China, India, and Brazil facing the steepest hikes, this gave their rivals a relative edge. Fourteen of the top 20 countries ended up with advantages. Leading the pack were the UK (+12.3%), Mexico (+10.8%), and Vietnam (+6.1%).

Country	Relative Tariff Advantage (%)
UK	12.3
Mexico	10.8
Vietnam	6.1
Italy	4.3
Taiwan	4.2
Singapore	4.0
Thailand	3.3
Indonesia	3.3
Japan	2.7
Malaysia	2.5
South Korea	2.4
Germany	2.1
Netherlands	1.8
France	1.4
Ireland	0.4
Canada	-4.0
Switzerland	-6.5
Brazil	-11.9
India	-14.8
China	-28.5

On the losing side, China took the biggest hit at -28.5%. India (-14.8%), Brazil (-11.9%), and Switzerland (-6.5%) followed. Canada (-4.0%) also landed with a slight disadvantage.

Tariff Revenue by Country

So what does this mean for tariff revenue for the U.S.?

Hypothetical numbers from Global Trade Alert show what additional revenue would be provided if 2024 trade levels were to continue without any supply and demand adjustments. Trade with China is projected to generate the most tariff revenue by far, with $205.2 billion. Mexico ($84.1 billion) and Canada ($78.8 billion) round out the top three.

Tariffs paid for imports from India ($33.0 billion), Japan ($32.3 billion), and Germany ($29.9 billion) are also set to generate sizable sums. The UK, by contrast, is forecasted to contribute just $4.8 billion.

The Shifting U.S. Trade Landscape

Trump’s tariffs reshaped the global trade landscape, hitting some countries hard while giving others a competitive edge. Both relative advantages and tariff revenues clearly show the ripple effects, underscoring how unevenly the costs and benefits are distributed.

Visit the Hinrich Foundation to learn more about the future of global trade.

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Ranked: Countries Losing the Most (and Least) from Trump’s Tariffs