Why would a social conservative vote for Donald Trump, who is the least socially conservative of all the Republican candidates? I can think of a few reasons:
1. The big issues for social conservatives are abortion, gay marriage, and religious liberty (religious liberty being threatened as a consequence of gay marriage and civil rights laws).
2. On abortion, unless the Supreme Court were to revisit Roe v. Wade — something nobody foresees happening — the right to legal abortion is here to stay. Even if the Court overturned Roe, all that would mean is that the right to regulate abortion would return to the states. Most states would unhesitatingly protect abortion rights. Some would impose restrictions. In no state would it likely be banned outright. The possibility of there being an end to abortion achieved through judicial and legislative means is remote. That does not mean that having a pro-life president is unimportant, but it does mean that its importance has to be judged relative to other factors.
3. Anybody who thinks Obergefell is going to be overturned is dreaming. It won’t happen. Roe was less popular in 1973 than Obergefell is today, and we all know by now that the generation most opposed to same-sex marriage is passing away. Gay marriage is here to stay. Our side lost that battle, and we waste time and resources trying to re-fight it. The candidates who say they’re going to work to overturn Obergefell are either pandering or deluded. And socially conservative voters who are in touch with reality know that what’s done is done. Fighting same-sex marriage in the courts is the most lost of lost causes.
4. Religious liberty is where the real fight is, specifically the degree to which religious institutions and individuals will have the freedom to practice their beliefs without running afoul of civil liberties for gay men and women. This is where having a friendly administration matters most to religious and social conservatives. And this is an area where religious and social conservatives are in the most danger of being bamboozled by the GOP Establishment.
Why? Every single one of the GOP candidates will say the right thing (from a social conservative point of view) on religious liberty. But will they deliver? Don’t you believe it. The Indiana RFRA fight was the Waterloo of social conservatives. Big Business has come down decisively on the side of gay rights, and forced Gov. Mike Pence and the state GOP lawmakers to back down. They forced Gov. Asa Hutchinson in Arkansas to back down. As I cannot repeat often enough, I was told last fall by multiple sources in a position to know that the Congressional Republicans have no intention of making religious liberty an issue going forward. For one thing, they don’t want to be called bigots, and for another, the donor class is against it. I don’t doubt that Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz (at least) would like to protect religious liberty, but I am convinced that they are too beholden to the donor class to do anything more than make speeches.
5. That brings us to Donald Trump. He has said publicly that he will make protecting religious liberty a priority. Does he mean it? I have no idea, and you don’t either. He is no religious conservative. But he is a populist who doesn’t care what the donor class thinks, because he is not indebted to them. It is reasonable to think that religious liberty stands a better chance with Trump in the White House than any other Republican. Mind you, that’s the soft bigotry of low expectations, but that just goes to show you how weak the position of us religious and social conservatives has become within the Republican Party.
6. There are, of course, ramifications for social conservatism from the way the economy is run, for open-borders policies, and from the GOP-Democratic establishment’s hawkishness. “Invade the world, invite the world” ought to matter to social conservatives, as should economic policies that hollow out American industries and cities. FiveThirtyEight writes that GOP-leaning cities are under greater threat of losing jobs to automation. Job loss has tremendous impact on the social fabric. “Creative destruction” doesn’t sound so nice when it’s your job and your community being destroyed. Trump speaks to that reality in ways the other Republicans do not. Is he selling snake oil? He may well be. But he’s talking about it compellingly.
That’s a case for social and religious conservatives voting for Donald Trump. I’m not saying it’s a persuasive case; most conservative Christians I know are against Trump, for reasons strongly rooted in their faith convictions. And I’m not saying it’s what I personally believe. But I am saying here that it is by no means unreasonable for social and religious conservatives, facing down the unhappy realities of this field, to cast their lot with the much-married, amoral, pride-filled casino mogul. We live in interesting times.