The United Arab Emirates declared on Wednesday that anyone publishing statements sympathetic to Qatar could be punished with up to 15 years in prison, and said it would deny entry to anyone with a Qatari passport or resident visa.
UAE officials denounced Qatar’s alleged support for state-sponsored terrorism, in keeping with the official narrative of the crisis. UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash threatened more curbs if necessary, according to Reuters, saying Qatar needed to make "iron-clad" commitments to change policies on funding militants. Qatar denies any connection with terrorism.
"Strict and firm action will be taken against anyone who shows sympathy or any form of bias towards Qatar, or against anyone who objects to the position of the United Arab Emirates, whether it be through the means of social media, or any type of written, visual or verbal form," UAE Attorney-General Hamad Saif al-Shamsi said.
On top of a possible jail term, offenders could also be hit with a fine of at least 500,000 dirhams, the newspaper said, citing a statement to Arabic-language media. Since the diplomatic row erupted, slogans against and in support of Qatar have dominated Twitter in Arabic, a platform used widely in the Arab world, particularly in Saudi Arabia.
The Saudis continue to pile pressure on Qatar with Foreign Minister Adel Al-Jubeir on Wednesday said Qatar must deliver on the promises it made during the 2014 situation.
“We want to see Qatar implement the promises it made a few years back with regard to its support of extremist groups, to its hostile media and interference in affairs of other countries” he told reporters in Paris as cited by Al Jazeera.
Allegations of Islamist sympathies and support have for years strained Doha's relations with its Gulf Arab neighbors, who consider movements such as the Muslim Brotherhood a security threat, but as we detailed previously, in reality, the Qatar crisis probably has more to do with natural resources than terrorism.
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Many have speculated (with evidence going as far back as 2012) that one of the reasons for the long-running Syria proxy war was nothing more complex than competing gas pipelines, with Qatar eager to pass its own pipeline, connecting Europe to its vast natural gas deposits, however as that would put Gazprom's monopoly of European LNG supply in jeopardy, Russia had been firmly, and violently, against this strategy from the beginning and explains Putin's firm support of the Assad regime, and his desire to prevent it from being replaced with a puppet regime.
The reasons for discord between Qatar and its neighbors are numerous and start in 1995 when Qatar was about to make its first shipment of liquid natural gas from the world’s largest reservoir. The offshore North Field, which provides virtually all of Qatar’s gas, is shared with Iran, Saudi Arabia’s hated rival.
The result to Qatar's finances was like the windfall that Saudi Arabia reaped from its vast crude oil wealth. It turned Qatar into not just the world’s richest nation, with an annual per-capita income of $130,000, but also the world’s largest LNG exporter. The focus on gas set it apart from its oil producing neighbors in the Gulf Cooperation Council and allowed it to break from domination by Saudi Arabia, which in Monday’s statement of complaint described Qataris as an “extension of their brethren in the Kingdom” as it cut off diplomatic relations and closed the border.
In short, over the past two decades, Qatar become the single biggest natural gas powerhouse in the region, with only Russia's Gazprom able to challenge Qatar's influence in LNG exports.
Because of the tiny nation's growing financial and political "independence", its neighbors grew increasingly frustrated and concerned, as Qatar – once a kind of Saudi vassal state – set a new course of autonomy.
The dispute has put the US in an awkward position. President Donald Trump doesn’t want to look weak on terror – this despite signing an arms deal with Saudi Arabia, the single biggest funder of terror. But Qatar hosts 8,000 U.S. military personnel at al Udeid, the largest U.S. air base in the Middle East, and a launchpad for U.S.-led strikes on ISIS.
President Trump praised the actions against Qatar, but later stressed the need for Arab unity during a phone call with Saudi King Salman.
Meanwhile, his defense secretary, James Mattis, spoke to his Qatari counterpart to express commitment to the Gulf region's security.
The crisis erupted on Monday when Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt abruptly cut diplomatic ties with Qatar, accusing it of "spreading chaos," by funding terrorism and supporting Iran.
The dispute between Qatar and its Gulf neighbors started over a “fake news” story that was planted at Qatar's state-run news agency by Russian hackers, according to US intelligence. On May 23, a news report from the Qatari News Agency attributed to the country's ruler Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, criticized US foreign policy in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia, questioned whether the US President would last in office, and also appeared friendly to Iran.
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The reaction to all this continues to escalate in Qatar's stock, bond, and FX markets with the latter in the most peril as the forward market prices in an increasing likelihood of breaking the peg...