It seems Americans are considerably more sanguine than the British about President Donald Trump's future...
First-Term Trump Impeachment Odds: Paddy Power 60% - PredictIt 35%
According to US-based PredictIt, the odds of Trump being impeached during his first term are 35%...
However, money flow into UK bookies Paddy Power have pushed the odds of a first-term impeachment to 60%!
So Paddy Power odds of impeachment in first term are 60%, notably higher than PredictIt's 35%, certainly seems like a great opportunity for a translatlantic arbitrage.
But there are more discrepancies.
2017 Impeachment Odds: Paddy Power 33% - PredictIt 10%
PredictIt sees just a 10% chance of Trump being impeached by the end of 2017...
But Paddy Power sees a 33% chance of Trump being impeached by year-end...
And from 2017 on...
- 2018 Trump Impeachment Odds: Paddy Power 15% - PredictIt 22%
- 2019 Trump Impeachment Odds: Paddy Power 12%
- 2020 Trump Impeachment Odds: Paddy Power 2%
So what is it that Trump will be impeached for?
Treason it is - with a 33% chance.
Of course, with that in mind, Paddy Power is taking bets on whether Trump will meet with the KKK...