How the World Economy Could Look in 2040
Key Takeaways
- The United States, China, and India are projected to account for 51% of the world’s $227 trillion in economic output in 2040.
- India is projected to rise from fourth place in 2026 to third in 2040, while Indonesia climbs into the top 10, overtaking Italy.
The global economy is projected to grow from approximately $124 trillion in 2026 to $227 trillion by 2040, an increase of 83% in nominal terms.
That expansion will reshape the economic rankings, with China projected to narrow America’s lead and Asia accounting for a growing share of global output.
This graphic shows projected GDP across 190 economies in 2040, using the World Economic League Table 2026 produced by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr). Figures measure annual output in current U.S. dollars and are not adjusted for inflation.
China to Close In on U.S. GDP by 2040
In Cebr’s estimates for 2026, the U.S. economy accounts for about 26% of global GDP at $31.6 trillion, while China accounts for 17% at $20.9 trillion.
By 2040, the gap between the world’s two largest economies is projected to narrow to approximately $5 trillion, compared with $10.7 trillion in 2026. The U.S. would remain in first place at $52.9 trillion, followed by China at $47.9 trillion.
China’s share of global GDP is projected to rise to 21%, while America’s falls to 23%. According to IMF data, China already ranks as the world’s largest economy by purchasing power parity in 2026, which accounts for differences in local prices.
The table below lists each economy’s projected nominal GDP in 2040, in billions of U.S. dollars, and its projected share of the global economy:
| Rank | Country / Economy | 2040 GDP Proj. ($B) | Share of Global GDP (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | 52,852 | 23.3 |
| 2 | China | 47,877 | 21.1 |
| 3 | India | 14,092 | 6.2 |
| 4 | Germany | 7,783 | 3.4 |
| 5 | United Kingdom | 6,784 | 3.0 |
| 6 | Japan | 5,922 | 2.6 |
| 7 | France | 5,203 | 2.3 |
| 8 | Indonesia | 4,182 | 1.8 |
| 9 | Brazil | 3,943 | 1.7 |
| 10 | Canada | 3,818 | 1.7 |
| 11 | Italy | 3,771 | 1.7 |
| 12 | Spain | 3,373 | 1.5 |
| 13 | South Korea | 3,297 | 1.5 |
| 14 | Australia | 3,289 | 1.4 |
| 15 | Mexico | 3,268 | 1.4 |
| 16 | Russia | 3,247 | 1.4 |
| 17 | Saudi Arabia | 2,890 | 1.3 |
| 18 | Netherlands | 2,142 | 0.9 |
| 19 | Türkiye | 2,053 | 0.9 |
| 20 | Argentina | 2,009 | 0.9 |
| 21 | Poland | 1,828 | 0.8 |
| 22 | Switzerland | 1,639 | 0.7 |
| 23 | Taiwan | 1,521 | 0.7 |
| 24 | Philippines | 1,500 | 0.7 |
| 25 | Bangladesh | 1,448 | 0.6 |
| 26 | United Arab Emirates | 1,412 | 0.6 |
| 27 | Vietnam | 1,407 | 0.6 |
| 28 | Ireland | 1,234 | 0.5 |
| 29 | Belgium | 1,106 | 0.5 |
| 30 | Israel | 1,063 | 0.5 |
| 31 | Malaysia | 1,060 | 0.5 |
| 32 | Singapore | 1,058 | 0.5 |
| 33 | Thailand | 1,037 | 0.5 |
| 34 | Sweden | 1,019 | 0.4 |
| 35 | Austria | 894 | 0.4 |
| 36 | Egypt | 869 | 0.4 |
| 37 | Colombia | 827 | 0.4 |
| 38 | Pakistan | 812 | 0.4 |
| 39 | Norway | 806 | 0.4 |
| 40 | Romania | 764 | 0.3 |
| 41 | Hong Kong | 758 | 0.3 |
| 42 | Denmark | 751 | 0.3 |
| 43 | Iraq | 699 | 0.3 |
| 44 | South Africa | 693 | 0.3 |
| 45 | Nigeria | 688 | 0.3 |
| 46 | Kazakhstan | 650 | 0.3 |
| 47 | Czechia | 630 | 0.3 |
| 48 | Chile | 597 | 0.3 |
| 49 | Iran | 594 | 0.3 |
| 50 | Portugal | 588 | 0.3 |
| 51 | Peru | 572 | 0.3 |
| 52 | Algeria | 526 | 0.2 |
| 53 | Finland | 516 | 0.2 |
| 54 | Qatar | 500 | 0.2 |
| 55 | Greece | 484 | 0.2 |
| 56 | New Zealand | 476 | 0.2 |
| 57 | Ethiopia | 461 | 0.2 |
| 58 | Ukraine | 435 | 0.2 |
| 59 | Hungary | 413 | 0.2 |
| 60 | Morocco | 389 | 0.2 |
| 61 | Dominican Republic | 347 | 0.2 |
| 62 | Kenya | 343 | 0.2 |
| 63 | Uzbekistan | 342 | 0.2 |
| 64 | Kuwait | 322 | 0.1 |
| 65 | Côte d'Ivoire | 318 | 0.1 |
| 66 | Slovakia | 289 | 0.1 |
| 67 | Tanzania | 275 | 0.1 |
| 68 | Guatemala | 271 | 0.1 |
| 69 | Oman | 260 | 0.1 |
| 70 | Ecuador | 246 | 0.1 |
| 71 | Costa Rica | 226 | <0.1 |
| 72 | Bulgaria | 221 | <0.1 |
| 73 | Panama | 218 | <0.1 |
| 74 | Serbia | 213 | <0.1 |
| 75 | Croatia | 209 | <0.1 |
| 76 | Uganda | 202 | <0.1 |
| 77 | Democratic Republic of the Congo | 202 | <0.1 |
| 78 | Sri Lanka | 201 | <0.1 |
| 79 | Ghana | 201 | <0.1 |
| 80 | Puerto Rico | 198 | <0.1 |
| 81 | Angola | 197 | <0.1 |
| 82 | Lithuania | 193 | <0.1 |
| 83 | Luxembourg | 179 | <0.1 |
| 84 | Slovenia | 153 | <0.1 |
| 85 | Azerbaijan | 152 | <0.1 |
| 86 | Uruguay | 152 | <0.1 |
| 87 | Cameroon | 141 | <0.1 |
| 88 | Cambodia | 131 | <0.1 |
| 89 | Turkmenistan | 127 | <0.1 |
| 90 | Nepal | 119 | <0.1 |
| 91 | Jordan | 115 | <0.1 |
| 92 | Belarus | 113 | <0.1 |
| 93 | Bahrain | 106 | <0.1 |
| 94 | Macao | 105 | <0.1 |
| 95 | Paraguay | 104 | <0.1 |
| 96 | Latvia | 103 | <0.1 |
| 97 | Georgia | 102 | <0.1 |
| 98 | Libya | 97 | <0.1 |
| 99 | Myanmar (2039 GDP) | 108 | <0.1 |
| 100 | Estonia | 92 | <0.1 |
| 101 | Senegal | 89 | <0.1 |
| 102 | Honduras | 87 | <0.1 |
| 103 | Sudan | 85 | <0.1 |
| 104 | Tunisia | 85 | <0.1 |
| 105 | Cyprus | 83 | <0.1 |
| 106 | Guinea | 80 | <0.1 |
| 107 | Zimbabwe | 74 | <0.1 |
| 108 | El Salvador | 74 | <0.1 |
| 109 | Bolivia | 70 | <0.1 |
| 110 | Benin | 70 | <0.1 |
| 111 | Armenia | 69 | <0.1 |
| 112 | Zambia | 68 | <0.1 |
| 113 | Papua New Guinea | 68 | <0.1 |
| 114 | Mali | 67 | <0.1 |
| 115 | Guyana | 67 | <0.1 |
| 116 | Mongolia | 66 | <0.1 |
| 117 | Malta | 66 | <0.1 |
| 118 | Niger | 66 | <0.1 |
| 119 | Iceland | 63 | <0.1 |
| 120 | Albania | 62 | <0.1 |
| 121 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 62 | <0.1 |
| 122 | Mozambique | 60 | <0.1 |
| 123 | Burkina Faso | 60 | <0.1 |
| 124 | Rwanda | 55 | <0.1 |
| 125 | Kyrgyzstan | 54 | <0.1 |
| 126 | Botswana | 50 | <0.1 |
| 127 | Chad | 49 | <0.1 |
| 128 | Trinidad and Tobago | 48 | <0.1 |
| 129 | Madagascar | 47 | <0.1 |
| 130 | Gabon | 44 | <0.1 |
| 131 | Nicaragua | 42 | <0.1 |
| 132 | Tajikistan | 39 | <0.1 |
| 133 | Moldova | 39 | <0.1 |
| 134 | Somalia | 37 | <0.1 |
| 135 | Jamaica | 36 | <0.1 |
| 136 | North Macedonia | 36 | <0.1 |
| 137 | Brunei Darussalam | 34 | <0.1 |
| 138 | Mauritius | 34 | <0.1 |
| 139 | Republic of Congo | 33 | <0.1 |
| 140 | Haiti | 32 | <0.1 |
| 141 | Togo | 31 | <0.1 |
| 142 | Namibia | 29 | <0.1 |
| 143 | Kosovo | 28 | <0.1 |
| 144 | Laos | 28 | <0.1 |
| 145 | Bahamas | 27 | <0.1 |
| 146 | Mauritania | 26 | <0.1 |
| 147 | Yemen | 25 | <0.1 |
| 148 | Equatorial Guinea | 22 | <0.1 |
| 149 | Malawi | 21 | <0.1 |
| 150 | Sierra Leone | 18 | <0.1 |
| 151 | Montenegro | 18 | <0.1 |
| 152 | Maldives | 17 | <0.1 |
| 153 | Suriname | 15.7 | <0.1 |
| 154 | Liberia | 14.1 | <0.1 |
| 155 | Djibouti | 13.6 | <0.1 |
| 156 | Barbados | 13 | <0.1 |
| 157 | Fiji | 12.9 | <0.1 |
| 158 | Burundi | 10.7 | <0.1 |
| 159 | Eswatini | 10.6 | <0.1 |
| 160 | Bhutan | 10.6 | <0.1 |
| 161 | South Sudan | 7.8 | <0.1 |
| 162 | Cabo Verde | 7.7 | <0.1 |
| 163 | Aruba | 7.2 | <0.1 |
| 164 | Andorra | 7.1 | <0.1 |
| 165 | Central African Republic | 6.9 | <0.1 |
| 166 | Gambia | 6.6 | <0.1 |
| 167 | Belize | 5.7 | <0.1 |
| 168 | Guinea-Bissau | 5.7 | <0.1 |
| 169 | Seychelles | 5.1 | <0.1 |
| 170 | Timor-Leste | 4.9 | <0.1 |
| 171 | St. Lucia | 4.5 | <0.1 |
| 172 | Antigua and Barbuda | 4.1 | <0.1 |
| 173 | Lesotho | 3.8 | <0.1 |
| 174 | Solomon Islands | 3.7 | <0.1 |
| 175 | Comoros | 3.5 | <0.1 |
| 176 | San Marino | 3.4 | <0.1 |
| 177 | Grenada | 3 | <0.1 |
| 178 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 2.4 | <0.1 |
| 179 | Samoa | 2.3 | <0.1 |
| 180 | Vanuatu | 2.2 | <0.1 |
| 181 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 2.2 | <0.1 |
| 182 | São Tomé and Príncipe | 1.7 | <0.1 |
| 183 | Dominica | 1.4 | <0.1 |
| 184 | Tonga | 0.9 | <0.1 |
| 185 | Micronesia | 0.8 | <0.1 |
| 186 | Palau | 0.7 | <0.1 |
| 187 | Kiribati | 0.6 | <0.1 |
| 188 | Marshall Islands | 0.6 | <0.1 |
| 189 | Nauru | 0.3 | <0.1 |
| 190 | Tuvalu | 0.1 | <0.1 |
| -- | World Total | 227,060 | 100.0% |
China’s gains are part of a broader economic shift toward Asia, whose share of global GDP is projected to rise from about 32% in 2026 to 39% by 2040.
Europe’s share is projected to fall from 26% to 21% over the same period, while North America’s declines from 30% to 27%.
While the U.S. is projected to remain the largest individual economy, growth in China, India, and Indonesia would give Asia a larger role in shaping global demand and investment.
India and Indonesia Climb the Global Economic Rankings
India is projected to rise from fourth in 2026 to third in 2040. Its economy would more than triple from $4.5 trillion to $14.1 trillion over that period, exceeding the projected combined output of Germany ($7.8 trillion) and Japan ($5.9 trillion).
Cebr points to manufacturers diversifying supply chains away from China as an opportunity for India, citing Apple’s expansion of production there as an example.
Germany and Japan also lose ground in the rankings, slipping from third to fourth and fifth to sixth, respectively, by 2040. Both economies are projected to grow, but India overtakes Germany while the U.K. overtakes Japan.
Indonesia makes an even larger jump, moving from 17th to eighth. Its projected $4.2 trillion economy in 2040 would overtake Italy’s $3.8 trillion, pushing Italy out of the top 10.
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