Asia

In retrospect it appears Tom DeMark was spot on with his Wednesday prediction, made just as the Dow Jones was down some 500 points that that very day was "an interim low" to be followed by a 5-8% rebound (at which point the selling would resume). In fact, those trading Japanese stocks saw virtually the entire predicted rebound take place in just one day as the Nikkei soared by almost 6% overnight, or nearly 1000 points, the biggest jump in 4 months, while risk everywhere else around the globe has likewise exploded higher, as crude has stormed back over $31/barrel.

Only the most intellectually dishonest can claim that last night's Chinese economic data deluge was anything but miserable. As we showed last night, everything missed:

• Industrial Production +5.9% (MISS vs +6.0% YoY expectations)
• Retail Sales +11.1% (MISS vs +11.3% YoY expectations)
• Fixed Asset Investment +10.0% (MISS vs +10.2% YoY expectations),
• Q4 GDP growth +6.8% (MISS vs +6.9% YoY expectations).

Even as the real full year GDP of 6.9% was in line, it was still the lowest since 1990...

Once again, China was faced with the unpleasant task of deciding which asset class to intervene in: its plunging stock market, or its currency. It chose the latter, and as a result after a turbulent start the Shanghai Composite sank by 5.3% to close just above 3000 and down 15% in just the past 11 days, suggesting that the PBOC is increasingly seeing the CNY1.8 trillion (at least) spent to stabilize stocks as a sunk cost.

It all started off relatively well: oil and US equity futures were buoyant on hopes Iran and Saudi Arabia would break out in a bloody conflict any minute boosting the net worth of shareholders of the military industrial complex, and then, out of nowhere, like a depressed China in a bull shop, the "mainland" crashed the party following a terrible manufacturing PMI report, which sent Chinese stocks sliding slowly at first, then very fast.

Even before Glencore made a dramatic appearance on the world's distressed commodity trader stage in late August, Zero Hedge readers were familiar with its Asian cousin, Noble Group, also known as Asia's largest commodity trader, a name we covered in our August 18 report "Noble Group’s Kurtosis Awakening Moment For The Commodity Markets."