Business

Submitted by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

They are going to layer their post-meeting statement with a steaming pile of if, ands & buts. It will exude an abundance of caution and a dearth of clarity.

Having judged that a 25 bps pinprick is warranted, the FOMC will then plant itself firmly in front of the great flickering dashboard in the Eccles Building. There it will repose to a regimen of “watchful waiting”, scouring the entrails of the “incoming data” to divine its next move.

With Emerging Market currencies, bonds, and stocks collapsing, US corporate debt crashing, and carry trades unwinding everywhere (ahead of the $800 billion liquidity withdrawal that looms from next week's 25bps hike from The Fed), it is no surprise that US equities are beginning to shudder (even the FANGs are not immune). But, as InvesTech Research notes, among its 6 compelling reasons to be cautious in 2016, the so-called Coppock Guide may be close to confirming that a bear market is at hand...

Why is it that when a banking crisis hits, everyone acts surprised?

The reason is actually quite simple: everyone at the top of the financial food chain are highly incentivized to keep quiet about the problems.

Central Banks, Bank CEOs, politicians… all of these people are focused primarily on maintaining CONFIDENCE in the system, NOT on fixing the system’s problems. Indeed, they cannot even openly discuss the system’s problems because it would quickly reveal that they are a primary cause of them.

Excerpted from Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin,

While there are numerous and often conflicting opinions about the underlying causes that lead up to the Great Financial Crisis, most agree that the proximal catalyst which finally exposed all the overvalued, illiquid "cockroaches" and confirmed that subprime "is not contained" in the process unleashing the chain of events that culminated with the collapse of Bear, Lehman and AIG, was the failure of one of Bear Stearn's credit-focused hedge funds in the early summer of 2007.

Here is how the conventional wisdom recalls this development: