DAX 30

S&P futures are flat, still spooked by the WSJ's report that Gary Cohn will not be the next Fed chair, while both European stocks and Asian shares gain in a overnight session on edge in which everyone is looking forward to today's main risk event: the ECB meeting and Draghi press conference due in under two hours. The dollar continued to weaken against most G-10 peers as tensions over North Korea, concerns over Stan Fischer's resignation and the increasingly cloudy Fed outlook outweighed positive sentiment from the US debt ceiling extension.

Yesterday morning, with the US closed for holiday but with S&P futures trading modestly lower on the latest set of North Korean geopolitical fears, we asked "is this time different", referencing last week's similar setup, when futures gapped lower on Monday after the Kim regime shot a missile over Japan, only to surge into the end of the week.

Since the plunge following North Korea's latest missile firing, the dollar has rocketed higher on the heels of a collapse in the JPY (BoJ?) and this morning on a dump in the EUR (after leaked jawboning from ECB) for the biggest 3 day swing since December.

Is this the start of a trend reversal in the dollar?

RBC's head of cross-asset strategy, Charlie McElligott, believes the risks of a tactical dollar reversal are growing...

WHAT IS THE OPPOSITE OF A ‘GROWTH SCARE?’

S&P futures are higher in early Wednesday trading, alongside Asian stocks and European bourses, both solidly in the green as the EURUSD drifts below the 1.20 "redline" while the dollar rebounds off a two and a half year low following the US "measured" response to North Korea’s missile test, which soothed jittery investors who now turn their focus to US economic data. Equity indexes in Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea also rose while 10Y US Treasuries are steady before the release of ADP employment and GDP data, both of which are expected to show an increase.

“Financial markets think the only realistic option for the U.S. and North Korea will be to sit down and talk at some point because other options are too costly for everyone involved. But no one can rule out the risk of accidents. Markets think the chicken game will continue for now and North Korea will remain a risk.”

      - Masayoshi Kichikawa, chief strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui.