Philadelphia Fed manufacturing

In what should be a relatively quiet, mid-summer week if only on the global economic schedule even as domestic and global political tensions continue to set the general risk tone on any given day, the focus over the next few days will be on US retail sales on Tuesday and Industria Production on Thursday, as well as on monetary meeting minutes from the Fed and the ECB. Here, focus is on the inflation outlook and discussion of transitory vs persistent factors.

After a tumultous week in the world of politics, with non-stop Trump drama in the US, a disastrous for Theresa May general election in the UK, and pro-establishment results in France and Italy, this is shaping up as another busy week ahead with multiple CB meetings, a full data calendar and even another important Eurogroup meeting for Greece. Wednesday's FOMC will be the main event, with the Fed expected to hike 25bp (see full Goldman preview here), while the BOJ, BOE and SNB all remain on hold.

Courtesy of BofA, here is the breakdown of key events:

European and Asian stocks slumped on Thursday following the worst one-day drop in US stocks in 8 months, while S&P futures tumbled to session lows, down 0.3% to 2,350 after initially posting a modest rebound, following a new Reuters report alleging that Trump campaign members communication with Russians on at least 18 occasions, and which prompted today's risk off mood sending the USDJPY crashing by 100 pips from overnight highs of 111.40.

The key economic releases this week are CPI, retail sales, and industrial production on Wednesday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including Chair Yellen’s semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday (Humphrey-Hawkins).

The week ahead promises to be a full one, with a plethora of events coming up. The Word Economic Forum in Davos could generate some headlines, with particular focus on Chinese President Xi Jinping, who will be the first Chinese president to attend. Tuesday brings Theresa May's long-awaited Brexit speech, while of course Friday marks the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 45th US president. We will also be keeping a weather eye out for the Supreme Court ruling on Article 50, although there is no set date for its announcement.

Central Banks: ECB and BOC