After five consecutive daily losses on the MSCI world stock index and seven straight falls in Europe, there was finally a bounce, as investors returned to global equity markets in an optimistic mood on Thursday, sending US futures higher after several days of losses as global stocks rebounded following a Chinese commodity-driven rout.
As we highlighted (see here), China’s macro data for October 2017 was disappointing with retail sales and industrial production missing consensus estimates, fixed asset investment was in line and inflation surprised on the upside. There was some impact from state-driven efforts to reduce pollution, but this issue will be an ongoing headache for decades. In big picture terms, the challenge for the Chinese leadership is to deflate a credit bubble in an orderly fashion, something which we’re not aware has ever been done on this scale.
The day has finally arrived: today the Fed will officially announce the start of its balance sheet shrinkage (full preview here) while keeping rates unchanged, perhaps hiking again in December (market odds at 56%), while revising its economic projections and "dots", most likely in a lower direction.
On Friday the Department of Commerce will report August retail sales, a material report which all else equal, may influence whether the Fed proceeds with its plans to unveil balance sheet tapering in its upcoming FOMC meeting. However, as we discussed last week, the report, together with virtually all other high frequency economic reports, will be materially distorted by the destructive aftermath of hurricane Harvey (Irma's impact will be felt in the September retail report).
In a somewhat quieter week for economic news, this week's focus is on BoE and SNB policy meetings as well as on inflation releases in US, UK, China and others. Other releases of note include retail sales in the US, UK and China along with industrial production in US, Eurozone & China.
Key events: