In the latest indication of contracting global growth, overnight Hong Kong reported that its Q1 GDP fell off a cliff 0.4% qoq, widly missing estimates of 0.1% growth as retail sales plummeted and the property market continued its collapse. On a y/y basis, the economy grew only 0.8% when compared to the same period last year, less than half the 1.9% y/y growth reflected in Q4.
Global stocks have started Friday the 13th on the wrong foot, with not only Hong Kong GDP unexpectedly tumbling by 0.4%, the worst print in years while retail sales fell for a thirteenth straight month in March, the longest stretch since 1999 as the Chinese hard landing spreads to the wealthy enclave, but also following a predicted collapse in Chinese new loan creation, which will reverberate not only in China but around the globe in the coming weeks.
If yesterday's selloff had a specific catalyst, namely some of the worst consumer retail earnings seen in years, it merely undid the Tuesday rally which levitated global risk with no fundamental driver, aside for a 200 pip spike in the USDJPY. Some central bankers may even say it was a "magical" levitation.
With the recent rally showing increasing signs of exhaustion and the market topping, traders have begun to wonder if the S&P500 will suffer the same fate in the coming months as it did in August 2015, and - more apropos - in December, when the S&P failed to make a new high before starting a more significant correction leg into January.
Via GoldSwitzerland.com,
Lars Schall interviewed Peter Boockvar. Peter is one of those rare and informed people in the investment space who really understands the history and role of Central Banks in general, the Federal Reserve Bank in particular, and their interactions with the financial industry on (government) policy. We are very pleased to have Peter Boockvar on board this month with his first Matterhorn Interview. We recommend a good listen below.