Once again the fears over China's slowdown, global growth faltering, and the fallacy of US analyst hockey sticks are biting at the ankles of fiction-peddling talking heads. With copper plunging and the USD Index resurgent, as Bloomberg's Mark Cudmore warns, the risk-aversion sparked by China in January is on course for an imminent replay...
Deja vu all over again...
With the last few weeks really diverging...
Despite today's jump in the USD index, the sharp dollar selloff trend remains even as U.S. rates have climbed and the commodity rally pauses. It’s logical to query if there is an end in sight for the rout. The short answer, according to Bloomberg's Mark Cudmore, is no. The dollar may be due a bounce, but that would likely mark a consolidation phase rather than a trend reversal.
Today was the Bloomberg Dollar Index's best day since Nov 2015...
For those anxiously Buying in May...
The machines giveth (in low volume meltup) and the data (Global PMI plunged to cycle lows following China's update overnight, not helped by EU's downgraded growth and inflation outlook) taketh away..
Federal Reserve officials are virtually certain to hold interest rates steady when their meeting ends today but they could try to send a message to markets and outside observers about what likely comes next. With no press conference scheduled after this week’s meeting and no new economic forecasts to be released, all the attention will be focused on their words and the market is more aware than ever that the Fed doesn’t act in a vacuum.
By Richard Breslow, a former FX trader and fund manager who writes for Bloomberg
Mood swings have been fluctuating so quickly they resemble rapid-eye-movement rather than the expected ebb and flow of a normal market, such as it is in a QE world.
On Monday S&P 500 futures made a year-to-date high. On Tuesday we were told the market was in full “risk-off” mode. You guessed it, they surged Wednesday. This makes it, perhaps, worth taking a moment to try for some perspective from a technical point of view.