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Economic, Business Confidence Starts To Roll Over

One week after Gallup measured US economic confidence at the highest level on record, just days after Trump gave his now long-forgotten "conciliatory" address to Congress, the mood appears to be souring somewhat not only for regular Americans but also small businesses.  In Gallup's latest weekly economic confidence reading, it found that Americans' confidence in the economy returned to its recent levels last week after a record-setting post-recession high the week before. Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index was +9 for the week ending March 12.

The Trump Range Chart

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

On the night of the U.S. Presidential election, many investment assets went from a state of sheer panic at the prospect of Donald Trump winning the election, to manic euphoria as the glorious narrative of Reagan-esque economic revival was born with Trump’s victory. Euphoric markets are not generally built on durable substance, and they eventually reconcile with reality as investors come to their senses.

Not The Onion: "Fed Is Jeopardizing The Buy-The-Dip Trade", BofA Warns

Not The Onion: "Fed Is Jeopardizing The Buy-The-Dip Trade", BofA Warns

Conceived several years ago, "buy the (fucking) dip" was a joke among traders seeking to explain the market's nearly-instant upward mean reversion, which as we have alleged since 2009, has been pushed higher by central bank policy and various HFT strats. Since then it has, sadly, become perhaps the only "explanation" for the behavior of the most bizarre market traders have ever encountered.

Luckily, the buy the dip quote-unquote "market" may be about to end, perhaps as soon as tomorrow, if Bank of America is right.

A Crash is Coming (Either in Oil or In Stocks)

A Crash is Coming (Either in Oil or In Stocks)

Oil may have just stopped the Bank of Japan.

The fact is that in late September 2016, the Bank of Japan embarked on a new monetary policy of targeting a yield of 0% on 10-Year Japanese Government bonds.

What this means is that the Bank of Japan will intervene in the market to maintain a 0% yield, and this involves aggressively devaluing the Yen against the $USD. You can see this in the chart below.

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