The simplest outline for this week concerns inflation.
Stocks have erupted higher in the last month based on the belief that the economy is roaring once again. However, this is all about sentiment, not reality. The Fed’s own real-time GDP tracking tools has collapsed from predicting growth of 3.5% in early February to just 1.9% last week.
While “growth” isn’t coming anytime soon… INFLATION is.
If record US crude and gasoline inventories (and soaring US production) were not big enough concerns, oil bulls are starting to lose faith (hedge fund shorts at 12-week highs) after lower growth targets in China and concerns over Russia's compliance with a global deal to cut oil output sparked renewed worries over a crude oil supply glut.
The key economic release this week is the employment report on Friday, which as Janet Yellen noted in her speech on Friday, is the only economic event (together perhaps with the CPI report on April 15), that could potentially derail a now practically guaranteed rate hike.
Bloomberg FX strategist, Vincent Cignarella, explains why for dollar bulls betting on a continued rise in the dollar, the lack of a strong move higher following last week's repricing of March rate hike odds may be an ominous development.
Dollar Bulls Despair as March Fed Hike Looks Like It's Baked In
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s remarks Friday all but confirmed what traders rushed to price in last week: a rate hike mid-month is close to a lock.