Business

Authored by Kenneth Rogoff, originally posted at Project Syndicate,

Are emerging-market central banks overweight in dollars and underweight in gold? Given a slowing global economy, in which emerging markets are probably very grateful for any reserves they retain, this might seem an ill-timed question. But there is a good case to be made that a shift in emerging markets toward accumulating gold would help the international financial system function more smoothly and benefit everyone.

The full article with additional charts can be accessed here

Something’s got to give in the oil market

There has been a surprising mood change at JPM over the past 4 months: after initially changing the company's long-held view on equities, which for the first time since 2007 it is no longer holds at overweight, JPM's head equity strategist Mislav Matejka has been quite vocal on urging clients to take advantage of the current rally and sell into it. To be sure, this was surprising because whether JPM is talking its book or not, the bank stands to generate more client fees if the prevailing sentiment is one of bullish optimism rather than the opposite.

Submitted by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

The average price of gas in the United States is now at $2.22, up 8 cents over last week, hitting a 6-month high. This, in stark contrast to February’s ultra-low gas prices of $1.68 per gallon - a level that had not been since the end of 2008.

Then, the price drop lasted only five months from December 2008 to May 2009 when it rose to $2.24 per gallon.

Having pushed higher yesterday, it appears 'investors' have had a sudden change of heart and are panic-buying bonds today, despite Fed's Williams warning that:

• WILLIAMS SAYS U.S. TREASURIES ARE PRICED EXTRAORDINARILY HIGH.

Treasury yields are down 5bps (2Y) to 9bps (10Y) with non-stop buying since Europe opened.

30Y yield's 7.5bps drop is the biggest since Feb 18th, pushing the yield back to its 20-day moving average.