Business

Following the death of Philly Fed's dead-cat-bounce, Dallas Fed did the same with a disappointing thud back to -13.9 (missing expectations of a rise to -10.0). This is the 16th consecutive month in contraction (below 0) and respondents are increasingly depressed, "it is a bad time for manufacturing, agriculture and mining - the only sectors that actually create wealth." What kind of fiction are these real average joes peddling? Have they not seen the jobs data?

A recession by any other name should smell so bad...

The gold bullion or “hidden gold mine” of various nation’s gold reserves stored in the vaults beneath the Bank of England have been covered by the BBC:

Under London’s streets lies a hidden gold mine.

The cracks are starting to show in the housing 'recovery'. With Starts and Permits already rolling over, New Home Sales printed a disappointing 511k (vs 520k expectations), dropping 1.5% MoM. This is the 3rd monthly decline in a row - the longest such streak since July 2011. While positive for affordability, the decline MoM and YoY in median home prices (-$9,400 and -$5,400 respectively) will do nothing for The Fed's wealth-creation mandate. The West saw New Home Sales plunge 23.6% MoM while The Midwest surged 18.5%.

In the US is most assuredly moving into, if not already in a recession.

The media trumpeted the amazing 2.0% growth rate initially forecast for the first quarter of 2016. That forecast has since collapsed to 0.3%. This is the same game Government beancounters have been playing for years: a great initial forecast that is then revised lower and lower.

The above suggest the US economy is flatlining. However, other data are far worse. We’ve seen 16 straight months of declines in Factory Orders (this never happens outside of recessions)

On Friday we wrote our latest take on how the ECB's CSPP, or corporate bond buying program, in which we explained how this ECB's latest market manipulating adventure is about to crush the fundamentals of the European (and soon, courtesy of the ECB's "SPV" loophole, global) bond market. We showed how the ECB, in its latest attempt to become an even more market-moving hedge fund, is set to buy billions in corporate bonds and not just European but also international, as long as they have a European-domiciled (read Ireland or Netherland) SPV holdco.