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Which Narrative Will Win Out: Bulls Or Bears?

Which Narrative Will Win Out: Bulls Or Bears?

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

The battle boils down to what controls the market: central banks or fundamentals.

The tug of war between Bull and Bear has rarely been so clearly matched--and the stakes have rarely been so high.

Bulls are confident that central banks have their back in 2016. After all, whatever it takes has successfully pushed equities higher for seven years. Why not an eighth?

Goldman Earnings Plunge 55% In Worst Quarter Since 2011; Average Compensation Crashes

There was some hope that after a better than expected result from JPM and, to a lesser extent MS and WFC, that Goldman would surprise to the upside. That did not happen even though the company moments ago reported EPS of $2.68 beating expectations of $2.48, which nonetheless was a 55% plunge in earnings from a year ago.

Frontrunning: April 19

  • Early Warning Signs of Recession Flash Faintly in U.S. Jobs Data (BBG)
  • Who Needs Buybacks? One S&P 500 Variant Just Rallied to a Record (BBG)
  • The unpredictable new voice of Saudi oil (FT)
  • Saudi's Other Warning Makes Oil Traders Sweat After Doha Failure (BBG)
  • U.S. oil investors rush for protection at $35 as Doha talks collapse (Reuters)
  • Trump candidacy: Where some fear to tread others see a path to victory (Reuters)
  • Iron Ore Powers Above $60 as Steel Rally in China Spurs Demand (BBG)

S&P To Open Above 2,100, Eyes All Time High As Global Markets Surge, Crude Rises Above $40

If asking traders where stocks and oil would be trading one day after a weekend in which the Doha OPEC meeting resulted in a spectacular failure, few if any would have said the S&P would be over 2,100, WTI would be back over $40 and the VIX would be about to drop to 12 and yet that is precisely where the the S&P500 is set to open today, hitting Goldman's year end target 8 months early, and oblivious of the latest batch of poor earnings news, this time from Intel and Netflix, both of which are sharply down overnight.

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