Business

After stumbling sideways around unch MoM for 3 months, US retail sales tumbled 0.3% in March (considerably worse than the 0.1% MoM gain expected) confirming BofA's credit card data as we warned. March's print is practically the weakest month since Feb 2015 and is unlikely to get much better given the dismally weak start to April, as we noted here. After 3 months of low-base bounce in YoY retail sales, March saw it collapse back to just 1.7% YoY - deep in recession territory.

March Retail Sales plunge...

Last week, I heard that Jim Rickards had a new book out, called ‘The new case for gold’. I immediately ordered a copy, and I have to say, Mr. Rickards does an excellent job of refuting various myths surrounding gold, and more specifically laying out a groundwork for the role of gold in the global financial system in the future. This book is recommended.

One month ago we were quite amused by what at that time was one of the most ridiculous short squeezes we have ever seen when the stock of Peabody Energy, exploded higher from $2 to about $6 in days on... nothing.

Many scratched their heads at this move as nothing fundamentally had changed in the company's deteriorating operations, and its bonds are among the most distressed issues trading currently. The move was even more bizarre when just a few days later Peabody warned it may file for bankruptcy protection imminently.

The ridiculous headline risk that is whipsawing oil showed up this morning once again. WTI slide as much as $41.26 earlier on news that Iran's Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh wouldn't be attending the April 17 meetings in Doha, however just moments later it was reported that Iran's OPEC Governor Kaempour will be attending and losses were largely erased.

Going into today, everyone's attention was focused on the JPM earnings report, the first big bank to report, on concerns about the profitability of the banking sector. And sure enough, as the chart below shows, going into JPM's earnings announcement, EPS expectations had been drastically cut to account for what was clearly set to be a painful quarter for banks.