Business

When trying to time the next US recession, most economists - as one would expect - look at economic data. The problem with such "data" as last year's farcical double seasonal GDP adjustments have shown, is that if the government is intent on putting lipstick on the pig that is US GDP, it will do just that over and over, unleashing non-GAAP GDP if it must, to avoid revealing the truth until it is prepared to do so.

Even with today's 3% surge - the most in a month - on the heels of Unicredit's CEO proclaiming that EU banks are "intensely" looking for fundin solutions, European banking stocks have collapsed for a 4th straight week for the worst losses since 2012.

Following the brief exuberance after Draghi unleashed his latest bazooka - which it seems was all front-run - European banking stocks have collapsed almost 20% - the biggest loss since April 2012.

Since The Fed ended QE3, the world's FX markets have become increasingly turmoily as the loss of Janet's foot on the throat of volatility sends chaotic sprres through carry traders' P&L. In fact, after rising 6 days in a row amid Japanese Yen strength, Global FX rates are the most turbulent since January 2012.

Chart: Bloomberg

Submitted by Mish of

Goldman Sach’s Dubious Advice “Short Gold!”

Those betting against Goldman Sach’s retail investment advice have generally been on the right side of things.

The same thing is about to happen again.

“Short gold! Sell gold!” said Goldman’s head commodity trader, Jeff Currie, during a CNBC “Power Lunch” interview.

Currie’s advice was in response to the question “Is there any commodity you are recommending that can help our viewers make some money?”

After today's latest atrocious wholesale inventory and sales data, we predicted that this may be the straw that tips Q1 GDP into contraction, or at best keeps it unchanged, per the Atlanta Fed.

Atlanta Fed should be at 0.0% for Q1 GDP after this

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 8, 2016

We were wrong. Moments ago the Fed with the highly-tracked GDP estimator, slashed its Q1 GDP estimate... to 0.1%. As a reminder, this number was as high as 2.7% precisely two months ago.