Business

When it comes to analyzing long-term trends, the 10-month moving average has been a great metric for charting long-term bull market vs. bear market changes.

Generally speaking (there are of course exceptions) when stocks break above this line, they’re in a bull market. When they break below it, they’re entering a bear market.

However, when you’re transitioning from a bull to a bear market, stocks usually follow a specific pattern in which there is a bounce to “kiss” former support as the bulls attempt to reignite the lost momentum.

With Valeant in free-fall this morning, collapsing well over 20% after surprising Wall Street with the magnitude of its guidance cut and its simply atrocious results now that the rollup strategy has well and truly blown up, we thought it worth revisiting just what else Bill Ackman will have left to liquidate to meet margin calls on his core biotech holding as it collapses to its lowest since 2012.

One week ago, as the bear market rally was about to hit its peak post-ECB crescendo, we reported that according to Bank of America data, "The "Smart Money" Is Quietly Getting Out Of Dodge: Sells For A Sixth Straight Week As Buybacks Soar." 

Thanks to dramatic downward revisions (from "resilient" historical data which we pointed out were entirely anomalous at the time and due entirely to seasonal adjustments) retail sales have dropped 0.54% in the last two months - the biggest sequential drop in a year.

While the YoY change rose from +3.0% to +3.1%, it remains below historically-recessionary levels and given the revisions suggests Q1 GDP growth markdowns are on their way with sales down MoM for every cohort from gas stations to furniture.

One weekend ago, in an unexpected episode of Zero Hedge trolling by Jefferies economists, the junk-bond focused mid-tier investment bank sent out a note in which it defended the "recovery" as follows: