Business

Thanks to dramatic downward revisions (from "resilient" historical data which we pointed out were entirely anomalous at the time and due entirely to seasonal adjustments) retail sales have dropped 0.54% in the last two months - the biggest sequential drop in a year.

While the YoY change rose from +3.0% to +3.1%, it remains below historically-recessionary levels and given the revisions suggests Q1 GDP growth markdowns are on their way with sales down MoM for every cohort from gas stations to furniture.

One weekend ago, in an unexpected episode of Zero Hedge trolling by Jefferies economists, the junk-bond focused mid-tier investment bank sent out a note in which it defended the "recovery" as follows:

• Bank of Japan Holds Fire on Stimulus, Negative Rate Unchanged (BBG)
• Donald Trump Aims for a Knockout in Tuesday Primaries (WSJ)
• Global Stocks Fall on Commodities Decline, Ahead of Fed Meeting (WSJ)
• Oil prices fall as clouds gather over supply picture (Reuters)
• Many Shale Companies Are Unable to Ramp Up Oil Output (WSJ)
• Valeant Slashes Guidance, stock crashes (WSJ)
• Fed to sit tight on rates at March meet, hint at hikes to come (Reuters)
• Big Money Gets On China's Lifeboats (BBG)

Was that it for the great February/March bear market rally?

Forex remains to be the largest market in the world and the least understood.  Central banks have more influence on global markets than any other force.  In other words, monetary policy is the ONLY economic indicator(s) investors should be watching, because let's face it, if the Fed raised rates to 10% like they should do and called in all that QE money, stocks would collapse.

But yet Forex remains a mystery, something that someone may have mentioned or you heard about.. wait FX is a TV channel?  or graphics?  a movie?