Business

I don’t trust this rally.

Few analysts realize that the sharpest, most aggressive rallies occur during bear markets. The reason for this is that during bear markets, investors tend to go short (borrow shares to bet on a collapse).

So when the market rallies even a little bit, it often will go absolutely vertical as these individuals panic and cover their shorts (which increases the buying).

Consider the Tech Bubble. When it burst, we had THREE monster rallies of 17%, 33% and 16% in just SIX months time!

Last October, BofA looked at Europe’s €2.6 trillion in negative-yielding debt and discovered something “stunning”: Savings rates were going up not down.

Don’t believe us, just have a look at these three charts:

Now that Q4 EPS is almost in the history books with 494 S&P500 companies reporting, we can look at the numbers: blended 4Q EPS is $29.49 (-2.9% y/y) with GAAP EPS of $19.92. As DB admits, a 67% GAAP-to-non GAAP ratio is well below the normal ~90% ex. recessions, exacerbated by asset impairments and restructuring costs especially at Energy.

This is how DB shows this almost unprecedented divergence between GAAP and non-GAAP "earnings":

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

Since stock markets are ultimately underpinned by corporate profits, let's ask: What factors could crush profits in 2016?

'Efficient' markets at their very best once again. Following a 19% spike overnight, analysts and traders alike are stunned by "the departure from fundamentals" as "the iron ore and steel markets have gone berserk." On the heels of home price surges, sent soaring after government suggestions that they will support growth, "investors are expecting further monetary easing by the Chinese government to boost steel demand," but as Bloomberg notes there has been no "corresponding increase in physical orders."