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Equity Markets Are The Most Complacent Since The Fed Stopped Printing Money

Equity Markets Are The Most Complacent Since The Fed Stopped Printing Money

Having risen to its highest level ever in August 2015, the volatility of volatility has collapsed. As traders position increasingly for negative interest rates in the US, the last month has seen 'uncertainty' crash to its most complacent in over 18 months.. and all this as well-chosen data corners The Fed (if it was truly data-dependent) to hike rates (or at best make hawkish over tones). Perhaps this is peak complacency ahead of tomorrow's do-or-die jobs data?

 

Earnings 'Optimism' Crashes To 7-Year Lows

Earnings 'Optimism' Crashes To 7-Year Lows

As the gap between GAAP and non-GAAP converges (and not in a bullish way), BofA reports the earnings estimate revision ratio (ERR) fell for the sixth consecutive month, to 0.47 from 0.49 – its lowest level since April 2009. So despite the exuberant, we're going back to record highs, rally off the lows, the real mother's milk data suggests more than twice as many cuts vs. increases to earnings forecasts over the last three months... and it's not just Energy anymore.

This is the lowest S&P500 GAAP earnings per share since 2010.

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