Business

Today's current inflation data dump from across the European nations appears to confirm forward inflation expectations trend (plumbing new record lows). With a considerably bigger than expected decline in prices , pushing Germany, Spain, and France back into deflation, pressure is mounting on Mr.Draghi. As one EU economist exclaimed, "the data send a clear message to the ECB and the only question that remains now is how bold action would be."

Germany tumbles back into deflation...

Amid the biggest weekly drop in GBPUSD (cable) in 7 years, a surge in UK credit risk, and a spike in cable volatility, Brexit risk has never been higher, but, as Citi notes, is only 30% priced in at current levels (while polls are more 50-50) even as The British Pound is plumbing 30-year lows versus the U.S. Dollar.

With Wall Street consensus expecting the poor first Q4 GDP estimate of 0.7% to be revised even lower to 0.4%, and with Wall Street's biggest former permabull Joe LaVorgna expecting a number as low as 0.1%, instead it received a surprising jolt to the upside when the BEA reported that instead of a decline, Q4 GDP was actually revised higher to 1.0%.

In our overnight wrap moments ago, when previewing today's action, we said that "absent some dramatic reversal, such as Gartman covering his shorts and going unexpectedly long, expect the low-volume, upward momentum to continue into the G-20 weekend." Well, as the bible says, ask and ye shall receive.

In Gartman's just released note, we learn that the recurring Fast Money guest has indeed finally thrown in the towel, and after putting on S&P shorts at 1926 some time ago, has finally capitulated with the market once again going sharply against him. To wit:

As noted earlier, among the catalysts for the overnight leg higher in oil was a statement by Venezuelan Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino who triggered the headline-scanning algos yesterday when he said, during a television broadcast on TeleSur, that oil producing countries were discussing a March meeting site (which apparently is sufficient to instill confidence in future cuts), and that Venezuela, Russia, Qatar and Saudi Arabia are planning to meet in July. He added that "There’s no capacity to continue putting oil on the market.