In the days after the August 24 ETFlash crash, the world's "risk parity" funds had a near-death experience when as a result of the furious disconnect between stocks, Treasurys and most other asset classes, the underlying correlation models failed, leading to dramatic declines for such giant funds as Bridgewater's $70 billion "All Weather" fund.
Submitted by Constantin Gurdgiev via True Economics blog,
Recent media and analysts coverage of the global economy, especially that of the advanced economies has focused on the rising degree of uncertainty surrounding growth prospects for 2016 and 2017. Much of the analysis is shlock, tending to repeat like a metronome the cliches of risk of ’monetary policy errors’ (aka: central banks, read the Fed, raising rates to fast and too high), or ‘emerging markets rot’ (aka: slowing growth in China), or ‘energy sector drag’ (aka: too little new investment into oil).
Benjamin Friedman criticizes Ted Cruz’s plan for a gargantuan military budget. Here he describes what the plan would cost:
Cruz says that as President he’ll spend 4.1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) on defense for two years, and 4 percent thereafter. As the chart below shows, under standard growth predictions, Cruz’s plan produces a massive increase in military spending: about $1.2 trillion over what would be Cruz’s first term and $2.6 trillion over eight years [bold mine-DL]. Details on the chart are at the end of this post.
If "everything's fixed," then why is the number of distressed debt issuers still the highest "since Lehman."
h/t @mattmiller1973
And the answer is not - it's just energy and it's different this time.
One of the more stunning economic updates this week was China's unprecedented surge in Chinese loan creation, when as reported earlier this week, China unveiled a whopping CNY3.42 trillion in Total Social Financing, its broadest debt aggregate, an amount greater than half a trillion dollars, of which CNY2.51 trillion was in new bank loans.