Business

With investment grade credit risk soaring, it's now or never for many firms to lever up at "relatively" low costs and two of the biggest buyback-ers are stepping up to the debt issuance window this week. Perhaps helping to explain the carnage in Treasuries at the end of last week (as rate-locks are set), Apple has unveiled a 10-part deal which could price today and IBM a 7 part deal. No size is indicated yet but Apple's previous two issuances were $8bn and $6.5bn.

The Empire Fed Manufacturing survey has been in contraction (below 0) since July 2015 and while February's -16.64 print was above January's -19.37, it was dramatically worse than the expected -10.0. New Orders and Shipments remain in contraction as both prices paid and recived tumbled. Hope improved modestly but remains markedly below December levels, as CapEx spending expectations weakened once again.

Still - we always have Services to take the pressure off manufacturing, right? Oh wait...

As traders slowly (and then quickly) woke up to the fact that a "freeze" at record levels of production is not a "cut", WTI Crude has collapsed over 5% from its hope-stricken illiquid highs of early trading - now back below $30.

As Barclays warns:

• OPEC OUTPUT FREEZE WOULD LEAVE 1Q SURPLUS OF 1M B/D: BARCLAYSOIL UPSIDE LIMITED EVEN IF OUTPUT FREEZE SUCCESSFUL: BARCLAYS

And the reaction to reality...

And this is taking the shine off the equity market exuberance...

The world let out a collective gasp of shock last night when the PBOC announced that in January, China had created an absolutely gargantuan CNY3.4 trillion in new total debt (Total Social Financing) - or about $520 billion - more than 50% higher than expected, of which CNY2.1 trillion was in the form of new loans.

The breakdown of that massive number is shown in the table below:

What happened? Here is Goldman's explanation: