Business

Submitted by Dan Doyle via OilPrice.com,

Inventories will continue to rise, but the momentum is slowing.

The following are some observations as to how we got here and how we’re gonna get out.

9 reasons why oil has taken so long to bottom:

1. OPEC increased production in 2015 to multiyear highs, principally in Saudi Arabia and Iraq where production between the two added 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) to inventories after the no cut stance was adopted.

One glance at The Baltic Dry Index's collapse is all that most need to see the painful state of the global shipping industry. However, as gCaptain reports, reality is even worse as the boom in so-called "zombie ships" suggests there is no recovery in sight for the beleaguered containership charter market, which is facing its biggest crisis since the 2008 financial crash.

It looks bad...

While market participants will hardly need the caution, having experienced historic moves in the oil complex over the past few days including the biggest two-day surge in seven years at the end of last week, one reason why oil remains so remarkably jumpy on even the tiniest hint of supply rationalization as demonstrated this morning by the latest comments by the Iraqi oil minister, is that the short interest in both WTI and Brent is at nosebleed record highs and continues to rise with every passing week.

The onslaught from JPMorgan continues, which in the aftermath of first Marko Kolanovic's periodic threats about sudden market crashes, and Mislav Matejka's recurring warnings that BTFD is dead and "not to overstay your welcome in the bounce", earlier today JPM's chief equity strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas has officially cut his 2016 year-end S&P500 earnings forecast to $120 from $123 "on stronger US Dollar and lower economic growth forecast" as well as trimming his year end S&500 target from 2,200 to 2,000.

Gold futures just broke out of their recent range, pushing well above the key 100-day moving average and testing towards $1120 - the highest since early November. It appears precious metals are signaling - as they have done since mid-December - that The Fed will be forced to admit it is wrong - just as Jeffrey Gundlach warned.

Is gold pricing in a policy error?

Breaking the crucial 100-day moving average (after testing its 3 times)

Because the money markets are...