Business

US manufacturing PMI printed a preliminary 52.7 for January, boucing from the 38-month lows of December and above expectations as output and new business improved (somewhat aberrantly given every other indication). This is still the 2nd lowest print for US manufacturing since October 2013. It's not all great news though as job creation dropped to 4-month lows "softer overall employment growth reflected a wait-and-see approach to staff recruitment at the start of the year and, in some cases, the need to focus on efforts to reduce costs."

Stocks are rallying this morning.

They are not rallying because of a change in fundamentals.

They are not rallying because of a significant debt restructuring.

They are not rallying because of great quarterly results from key economic bell-weathers.

They are rallying because of hope for more Central Bank stimulus.

This is the game traders have played for weeks now. Every time it has ended in failure.

AMEX is crashing, down over 9%, following lower revenues and weak guidance...

Analysts are jumping ship...

RBC Capital Markets’ Jason Arnold cut the stock to Underperform and sliced $10 off his target, to $59, citing the company’s guidance:

Despite promising more QQE if necessary (having said that more asset purchases threaten the nation's central bank's balance sheet just a week ago), it appears BoJ Governor Kuroda's comments on inflation expectations and oil prices have stalled the exuberant "global stimulus" rally (albeit briefly).

Kuroda muttered the following:

With all eyes on the overnight spike in crude oil prices (up 5% and back over $30, this must be the bottom right?), OPEC remains far from impressed with its basket price hovering at (or near) record low levels at $22.48. In fact, the collapse of the OPEC basket price in the last 3 weeks has been the fastest drop since October 2008. However, no matter the chaos occurring various oil instruments (OIL 40% premium to NAV), Citi has decided this is it and dubbed being long oil from here "the trade of the year."