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“Future Economic Historians” Will Probably Call the Period That Began In 2007 “the L-O-N-G-E-S-T DEPRESSION”

Sure, last year was the first pre-election year stock market loss since the Great Depression. 

And admittedly, last week was the worst opening week of any year … EVER.

But that’s not the big news.

The bigger news is that the Baltic Dry Index has crashed.

And a prominent economist – University of California economics prof Brad DeLong – wrote last week:

Glencore CDS Soar To 6 Year High After Bankruptcy Of US Subsidiary, Ongoing Copper Carnage

Glencore CDS Soar To 6 Year High After Bankruptcy Of US Subsidiary, Ongoing Copper Carnage

While the biggest bankruptcy story of the day is this morning's chapter 11 filing by Arch Coal, one which would trim $4.5 billion in debt from its balance sheet while handing over the bulk of the post-reorg company to its first-lien holders as part of the proposed debt-for-equity exchange, the reality is that the Arch default was widely anticipated by the market.

China's Hard Landing To Trigger Meltdown In India: "We Will See Another Crisis"

China's Hard Landing To Trigger Meltdown In India: "We Will See Another Crisis"

In late September, India “surprised” 51 out of 52 economists by cutting rates a larger than expected 50 bps.

Despite RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan’s penchant for catching markets off guard and despite the fact that exports had fallen for eight consecutive months, economists still failed to predict that anything more than 25 bps was in the cards.

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