It shouldn’t surprise anyone that after a period of relative quietness on the European front, something was bound to happen again. Even though it has been less than six months since Greece had to close its banks in an attempt to stop a bank run, it feels like it has been an eternity as the mainstream media chose not to spend too much attention on a fait-divers like a bank run.
Excerpted from JPMorgan CIO Michael Cembalest 2016 Outlook,
Something is wrong with this picture. In the US and Japan, corporate profits sank during the global financial crisis. In the US, the profit recovery was accompanied by a recovery in household income. In Japan, however, corporate profits and household income moved in opposite directions, as dynamics that helped profits recover did not help consumers.
A week before Mario Draghi disappointed a thoroughly spoiled market by “only” cutting the depo rate by 10 bps, “merely” extending QE by six months, and failing to boost the monthly rate of asset purchases under PSPP, we explained why the ECB is effectively chasing its own tail.
Excerpted from Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin,
The year 2015 was extraordinary. Incredibly, despite powerful confirmation of the bursting global Bubble thesis, market optimism remained deeply entrenched. All leading strategists surveyed in December by Barron’s remained bullish – some were borderline crazy optimistic.
Ever since a few far-sighted, contrarian traders made a killing by betting on the collapse of subprime in 2005 and 2006 - and by implication on the implosion of the capital markets - a trade famously resurrected in the latest Wall Street movie The Big Short (whose Michael Burry recently warned that "The Little Guy Will Pay" For The Next Crisis, again) everyone has been dreaming to uncover the next "subprime" - a trade that has a 20-to-1 upside to downside ratio, which can be put on in massive size, and which would lead to a quick and lucrative retirement.