The Oil Market
By EconMatters
Prediction Game
By EconMatters
Prediction Game
2015 was supposed to be another double-digit growth year for the market, instead as showed yesterday, it was the "year when nothing worked."
In the words of BMO's Lowell Yura, "this year is a wake-up call to think about lower returns for the next several years," warning that "investor expectations for both equities and bonds have been [mistakenly] elevated by recent history." Jim Bianco added that 2015 could be the worst for asset allocation funds since World War I: "for the first time since 2001, none of the major asset-classes returned more than 10%."
While it is two months delayed (and home sales have tumbled since) and before The Fed raised rates, Case-Shiller reports that home prices rose 0.84% MoM in October, beating expectations and the biggest monthly rise since March. While the YoY gains barely missed expectations at +5.54%, Miami, Tampa, and San Francisco all saw the biggest gains as Chicago, Cleveland, and San Diego saw the biggest drops in home prices.
It appears we are playing out the same seasonally-adjusted pattern as 2014...
Charts: Bloomberg
From stocks (Dow up 460 points from pre-Christmas lows), to FX (total craziness in EUR and GBP); and from Bonds (2Y underperforming this morning!) to Commodities (Copper soaring almost 3%, Crude spiking), it appears markets have gone nuts this morning...
Stocks - buy 'em, you'll love 'em...
VIX futures getting crushed...
FX markets - dump Cable, dump EUR
Treasuries - Short-dated bonds getting monkey-hammered...
And commodities are spiking... (despite USD strength)
Charts: Bloomberg
Submitted by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,
The S&P 500 closed at 2052 on November 18,2014. That was 405 days ago, and despite the rips and dips in the interim the broad market average has gone nowhere.