Business

Trying to remember what the world was like the last time the Fed hiked rates on June 29, 2006? Take a stroll down memory lane with DB's Jim Reid, for a quick reminder.

Following the collapse in industrial production, it is no surprise that Markit's Manufacturing PMI has plunged to 51.3, its lowest since October 2012. Under the surface it is a disaster with production volume growth the softest since October 2013, and new orders crashed to worst since September 2009.

But do not ignore manufacturing because, as Markit notes,

It was just last Thursday when we previewed what we said would likely be further downgrades for Brazil on the heels of S&P's move to cut the country to junk in September. 

Here's what we said: 

Via Dana Lyons' Tumblr,

Despite yesterday’s rally in the major indices, the underlying breadth statistics were historically weak.

For the third month in a row US Industrial Production dropped MoM, crashing 0.6% in November (against expectations of a mere 0.2% drop). This is the 9th month of 2015 with no MoM increase in industrial production and is the biggest MoM drop since March 2012. However, for the first time since Dec 2009, Industrial Production fell YoY (down 1.2%) signalling America is deep in recession. The excuse blame is "unusually warm weather" which sent the utilities index down 4.3% as demand for heating tumbled.