Business

For the third month in a row US Industrial Production dropped MoM, crashing 0.6% in November (against expectations of a mere 0.2% drop). This is the 9th month of 2015 with no MoM increase in industrial production and is the biggest MoM drop since March 2012. However, for the first time since Dec 2009, Industrial Production fell YoY (down 1.2%) signalling America is deep in recession. The excuse blame is "unusually warm weather" which sent the utilities index down 4.3% as demand for heating tumbled.

Housing Starts rose 10.5% in November (after plunging 12% in October) as it appears weather-weakened construction caught back up with single-family starts recovering from the plunge in October. The South saw the biggest spike (up 21%) and Northeast fell 8.5%. Building Permits rose 11% MoM (after a 5.1% last month) as multi-family spiked from 446 to 566 (driven by a 22% spike in The Midwest and The West). This is the biggest MoM gain since Dec 2010.

Permits spiked most in 5 years, Starts surged...

Is this supposed to happen on the day the Fed's rate hike is "boosting confidence in the economy" and telegraphs more gains for the dollar?

Or perhaps these are just early hints that the world's most crowded trade, being long the USD, is starting to crack?

• Fed Poised to Mark the End of an Era (Hilsenrath)
• Fed opens meeting to put an end to crisis era policy (Reuters)
• Fed's Historic Liftoff and Everything After: Decision Day Guide (BBG)
• Emerging Markets Gird for Fed Rate Increase (WSJ)
• What 7 Years at Zero Rates Have Looked Like (BBG)
• 5 Things to Watch at the Fed Meeting (WSJ)
• Tokyo Trader to Work at 4 a.m. Ahead of Fed as Bond Tumult Rises (BBG)
• Donald Trump Survives Another Debate as Republican Rivals Take Aim at Party Front-Runner (BBG)

With Bill Ackman's Pershing Square increasingly becoming a levered bet on the fate of Valeant, which moments ago, ahead of its investor day, cut both its revenue and profit forecasts for both the quarter and the full year as follows:

Q4 2015 Revised Guidance

• Total Revenues previously $3.25 - $3.45 billion now $2.7 - $2.8 billion
• Adjusted EPS* previously $4.00 - $4.20 now $2.55 -$2.65
• Adjusted Cash Flow from Operations* previously greater than $1.0 billion, now greater than $600 million

Full Year 2015 Revised Guidance