Business

Housing Starts rose 10.5% in November (after plunging 12% in October) as it appears weather-weakened construction caught back up with single-family starts recovering from the plunge in October. The South saw the biggest spike (up 21%) and Northeast fell 8.5%. Building Permits rose 11% MoM (after a 5.1% last month) as multi-family spiked from 446 to 566 (driven by a 22% spike in The Midwest and The West). This is the biggest MoM gain since Dec 2010.

Permits spiked most in 5 years, Starts surged...

Is this supposed to happen on the day the Fed's rate hike is "boosting confidence in the economy" and telegraphs more gains for the dollar?

Or perhaps these are just early hints that the world's most crowded trade, being long the USD, is starting to crack?

• Fed Poised to Mark the End of an Era (Hilsenrath)
• Fed opens meeting to put an end to crisis era policy (Reuters)
• Fed's Historic Liftoff and Everything After: Decision Day Guide (BBG)
• Emerging Markets Gird for Fed Rate Increase (WSJ)
• What 7 Years at Zero Rates Have Looked Like (BBG)
• 5 Things to Watch at the Fed Meeting (WSJ)
• Tokyo Trader to Work at 4 a.m. Ahead of Fed as Bond Tumult Rises (BBG)
• Donald Trump Survives Another Debate as Republican Rivals Take Aim at Party Front-Runner (BBG)

With Bill Ackman's Pershing Square increasingly becoming a levered bet on the fate of Valeant, which moments ago, ahead of its investor day, cut both its revenue and profit forecasts for both the quarter and the full year as follows:

Q4 2015 Revised Guidance

• Total Revenues previously $3.25 - $3.45 billion now $2.7 - $2.8 billion
• Adjusted EPS* previously $4.00 - $4.20 now $2.55 -$2.65
• Adjusted Cash Flow from Operations* previously greater than $1.0 billion, now greater than $600 million

Full Year 2015 Revised Guidance

The day has come when the boxed-in Fed has no choice: with the vast majority of the market expecting a rate hike, Yellen has to deliver or suffer a crushing confidence blow like no other. And deliver she will, with expectations that said hike will be "as dovish as possible", which however as we explained yesterday, is not really possible. For now however, the market is desperate to convince itself that just as more easing and more QE were bullish for the market, so rate hikes are just as bullish.