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Unchanged 2016 Fed Funds Median "Dot" Signals Fed Expects 4 Rate Hikes In 2016

Unchanged 2016 Fed Funds Median "Dot" Signals Fed Expects 4 Rate Hikes In 2016

There was much expectation that the Fed's announcement would be a Dovish hike based on a reduction in the 2016 median dot, however the Fed did not do that, and instead while the Kocherlakota negative dot was removed, the FOMC kept the median 2016 fed funds rate at 1.4% for year end, suggesting 4 rate hikes during 2016 and that the market is underestimating the pace of rate increases.

Where there was some dovishness was in the 2017 year end median FF, which was reduced from 2.6% to 2.4%. This can be seen in the compared dot plots.

 

Janet Yellen Explains Why Rate-Hikes Are Bullish - Live Feed

Janet Yellen Explains Why Rate-Hikes Are Bullish - Live Feed

In her first post-rate-hike press conference, Janet Yellen is about to go to extreme lengths to explain just how dovishly bullish raising interest rates is, despite leaving the Fed Funds forecast unchanged since September (i.,e. not dovish). We look forward to her explaining why she is raising rates now - as opposed to September - as economic data has nosedived and the market has done a significant job on contracting credit already. We also look forward to her explaining how, if rate hikes on the path to normalization are so awesome, why is the willingness to do it so low?

Fed Mouthpiece Reads Liftoff Tea Leaves

Well, liftoff has officially begun. 

Assuming 25 bps doesn't tip EM into crisis and/or trigger some kind of dramatic, unforeseen meltdown elsewhere, the Fed is about to embark on the first rate hike cycle in over a decade. 

Of course the hike itself isn't what's interesting - virtually no one thought the Fed would fold again, even as China did its best to create a bit of pre-Yellen drama by stirring up the deval fears with a nod to a new trade-weighted index for the yuan.

Fed Hikes Rates, Unleashing First Tightening Cycle In Over 11 Years

Fed Hikes Rates, Unleashing First Tightening Cycle In Over 11 Years

On the 7th anniversary of entering ZIRP, and for the first time since June 29th 2006, The Federal Reserve announced today that it will try and raise interest rates:

*FED RAISES INTEREST RATES 0.25 POINT IN UNANIMOUS VOTE

Of course, the flowery language and dots are as dovish as possible while maintaining some semblance of credibility with regard growth expectations as The Fed unleashes a tightening cycle for the first time in over 11 years.

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