Business

On October 30, the BOJ was widely expected to do something and disappointed markets by doing nothing.

Then, on December 3, the ECB had pushed markets into a rabid, EURUSD-shorting frenzy only to dramatically disappoint by doing the barest of minimums compared to the historic pre-jawboning by Draghi and company.

Today, according to the market there is nearly a ~80% probability that the Fed will announce the first rate hike, precisely 7 years to the day after it cut rates to zero.

But... "priced in"? "Non-Event"?

2Y yields are within a smidge of 1.00% for the first time since May 2010...

As The Dow dumps off opening highs into the red for the day...

But what do Treasuries know that stocks don't...

Charts: Bloomberg

Submitted by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

I believe the world is at the greatest financial market inflection point since 1929. One that calls for a basic truism:

You can make a profit in a rising market if you are long. And you can profit in falling market if you are short.

The $64 million question is: How can you know the market’s direction?

Despite a brief dead-cat-bounce late November, which Jim Cramer heralded as evidence of stabilization in China, the world's best known freight index has collapsed to new all-time record lows this morning. Amid a persistent glut of ships and ongoing concerns about Chinese steel imports, The Baltic Dry has tumbled to 471 - the lowest level in at least 30 years.

Worst. Ever.

It's 2:00:01 pm and the Fed has just announced it will hike rates by 25 bps while using very dovish language to convey that just like "tapering was not tightening" in 2013, so "tightening isn't really tightening", and unleashing a massive buying order.

So far so good. But the real question is what does this mean for post-kneejerk market dynamics, and the one most important variable of all: liquidity.