Business

"How close are we to the market top?"

The dollar index had been falling in early trading - extending its freefall from the Nov 1st Fed statement - but legged down on the dovish minutes to the lowest in 5 weeks. Gold is extending its gains, above key technical levels and while the curve is steady, long-end bond yields are sliding modestly.

Today is the worst day for the dollar index since Sept 7th...

And Gold has erased its plunge from Monday...

Early weakness in bonds has been entirely reversed...

With a dumping dollar and collapsing yield curve since November's FOMC, all eyes are on the Minutes for any signals of The Fed hawkishly ignoring inflation concerns but instead a few Fed officials opposed near-term hikes (on the basis of weak inflation). Furthermore, several Fed officials warned of the potential for bubbles, "in light of elevated asset valuations and low financial market volatility, several participants expressed concerns about a potential buildup of financial imbalances."

For the second week in the last 3, US oil rig counts rose dramatically (up 9 to 747).

The 18 rig jump is the biggest since June, to the highest level in almost 2 months, as the rebound in oil prices begins to draw out more production...

The minutes for the FOMC’s Oct/Nov meeting will be released at 2pm today, and are expected to be uneventful, just like the Fed meeting during which the central bank held rates between 1.00% and 1.25% in a unanimous vote, as expected, and where the only notable tweak was the small upgrade in the language used to describe the US economy, which is now seen to be expanding at a “solid rate” (versus “rising moderately” before), despite the disruptions caused by the recent hurricanes.