Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,
European GDP rose 0.6% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2017, the eighteenth consecutive increase for the Continental (EA 19) economy. That latter result is being heralded as some sort of achievement, though the 0.6% is also to a lesser degree. The truth is that neither is meaningful, and that Europe’s economy continues toward instead the abyss.
We have some sympathy for John Cryan, but only to the extent that he has the near impossible task of putting the biggest German bank back on a sound footing regaining market share and generating some elusive revenue growth: a virtually impossible task as long as Europe is choked by NIRP. As we noted two weeks ago, Deutsche’s 3Q 2017 results confirmed that the situation is still getting worse:
Have we been lulled into a false sense of security about the future path of rates by ZIRP/NIRP policies? Central banks’ misguided efforts to engineer inflation have undoubtedly been woefully feeble, so far. As the Federal Reserve “valiantly” raises short rates, markets ignore its dot plot and yield curves continue to flatten. And thanks to Larry Summers, the term “secular stagnation” has entered the lexicon. While it sure doesn't feel like it, could rates suddenly take off to the upside?
Earlier this year, Maui County residents in the island state of Hawaii were somewhat less than ecstatic to learn that their property taxes were going to increase by approximately $29.7 million for fiscal 2018. According to County Council member statements at the time, the additional funding was needed to help provide better public services for Maui residents.
By Gordon Johnson of Axiom Capital
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