Business

Against disappointing China PMIs, US Manufacturing PMI surged back near 2017 highs in October - shrugging off the efects of recent storms, floods, and wildfires - with factory jobs near their best since the financial crisis and gains broadening out to smaller firms too. However, ISM Manufacturing disappointed, falling back from 13 year highs.

So take your pick... is manufacturing momentum picking up (PMI) or fading (ISM)?

Pershing Square's Bill Ackman, who has been engaged in a 5-year long feud with Herbalife, betting its stock price would tumble to zero, came one step closer to admitting defeat on Wednesday when he told CNBC that his hedge fund recently restructured its position in the nutrition and supplements maker. "We converted the short position into a put position," Ackman said in an interview with CNBC, adding that his firm's potential losses on Herbalife will now be capped at 3 percent of the firm's capital. "We can still lose money but the loss is capped."

Ignoring the bullish ADP report, the yield curve, and especially the 5s30s has collapsed, bear flattening to 82.8bps, the lowest level since November 2007.

The long end leads the gains across the curve, with 30Y yields richer by 1.7bp on the day, breaching 2.86% for first time since Oct. 20; while 5Y yields are cheaper by 1.5bp.

US equity futures have hit a new records, helped by surging Asian and European stocks which have all started November on a euphoric note. Surging commodity prices, optimism about tax reform and hope for a new dovish Fed chair all combined to drive global stock markets to record highs on Wednesday, with the MSCI’s world stock index climbing 0.3% to a fresh all time high. Mining stocks lead gains as nickel and other industrial metals soar.

In our preview of today's FOMC, we said there is virtually no way the Fed could surprise on the hawkish side, especially with Trump set to unveil Jay Powell as the new head of the Fed: after all, the December rate hike is over 80% priced in at this point. But what about the opposite - can the Fed surprise on the dovish side? That, according to Bloomberg macro commentator and former Lehman trader Mark Cudmore is the biggest risk today. As he writes, "growth is solid, but not spectacular. It would be a brave stretch for the committee to upgrade its outlook.