Business

As part of its periodic Global Economic Outlook, SocGen traditionally includes a discussion of what it views are the biggest "black swans" both to the upside and the downside, and the latest just released edition titled "On a Plateau", which took a rather grim outlook to the world economy predicting that a US recession will likely hit in the not too distant future while "China, South Korea, Australia, US, Germany, UK and Japan are in the more mature phase of the cycle", and that current global growth is "essentially as good as it gets"...

... was no different. 

When the Fed released last month's Beige Book, as part of the explanation why employers are having an increasingly more difficult time finding jobs, it presented the following disturbing anecdote from a Boston Fed respondent:

Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com,

After the nine-month extension of the OPEC deal, there is a growing consensus that oil might bounce around in the $50s and $60s for the rest of the year. But as we move into 2018 and beyond, there is a great deal of disagreement among analysts about what happens to oil prices.

One month ago we reported that according to Beacon Policy Advisors, a new name had emerged as potential replacement to Janet Yellen as head of the Federal Reserve: that of former Goldman COO and current Trump National Economic Council advisor Gary Cohn.

"The buzz among those who claim Cohn confides in them is that he would like to eventually replace" Yellen, assuming Trump decides to move in a different direction when the chair's term ends in early February, Beacon Policy Advisors said in a daily report for clients in late April.

Authored by John Mauldin via MauldinEconomics.com,

Sometime this year, world public and private plus unfunded pensions will surpass $300 trillion. That is not even counting the $100 trillion in US government unfunded liabilities. Oops.

These obligations cannot be paid. A time is coming when the market and voters will realize this.