Chicago Fed national activity

In the US is most assuredly moving into, if not already in a recession.

The media trumpeted the amazing 2.0% growth rate initially forecast for the first quarter of 2016. That forecast has since collapsed to 0.3%. This is the same game Government beancounters have been playing for years: a great initial forecast that is then revised lower and lower.

The above suggest the US economy is flatlining. However, other data are far worse. We’ve seen 16 straight months of declines in Factory Orders (this never happens outside of recessions)

Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Market Cycles And Expected Outcomes

The “Visual Capitalist” website had a terrific market diagram explain the “best time to buy stocks.”

“Is it possible to time the market cycle to capture big gains?

 

Like many controversial topics in investing, there is no real professional consensus on market timing. Academics claim that it’s not possible, while traders and chartists swear by the idea.

 

One day after stocks were this close from hitting new all time highs on what have been either ok earnings, if looking at non-GAAP data, or atrocious earnings, based on GAAP, and where any oil headline is now immediately translated as bullish by the oil algos, so far futures are relatively flat, while European stocks were at their moments ago in anticipation of the latest ECB announcement due out in just one hour.  However, unlike last month's "quad-bazooka", this time the market expects far less from Draghi.

Submitted by Joseph Calhoun via Alhambra Investment Partners,

Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

At the beginning of this year, I began discussing the technical weakness that was emerging in the markets. Since that time, the markets have remained under pressure leading to a continued cautious portfolio stance.