When you look out across markets and across the increasingly fraught geopolitical landscape, there are plenty of black swans waiting in the wings (no pun intended). And quite a few of them are Chinese.
Over the past month we have documented the surreal reemergence of China's latest housing bubble (recall the first one burst in early 2014 which forced Beijing to reflate the stock market bubble, which also burst over a year later), in recent articles such as:
Despite its 98% crash from 2008 highs, and its plunge to record (35 year-plus) lows, the recent rally (off sub-300 lows) sparked a wave of exuberance with such luminaries as Jim Cramer proclaiming this a sign that everything is fixed again in China. Having risen non-stop since Feb 10th, coincidentally the same time that the entire world suddenly and unexplainedly went full risk-on short-squeeze buy-buy-buy, The Baltic Dry Index dropped today - which should not surprise many as China's Containerized Freight Index crashes to record lows...
We’ve written quite a bit over the past two years about the likelihood of social upheaval in China.
Since assuming office, Xi has presided over the country's emergence as a force to be reckoned with both militarily and financially on the world stage. Indeed, there’s an argument to be made that Beijing has returned the globe to a bipolarity not seen since the height of the Cold War.