ECB

Earlier this week we discussed a chart from Citi's Hanz Lorenzen, which we said may be the "scariest chart for central banks" and showed the projected collapse in central bank "impulse" in coming years as a result of balance sheet contraction, and which - if history is any indication - would drag down not only future inflation but also risk assets. As Citi put it "the principal transmission channel to the real economy has been...

Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog,

After many months of fighting all the naysayers predicting the next big stock market crash, I am finally succumbing to the seductive story of the dark side, and getting negative on equities. I am often early, so maybe this means the rally is about to accelerate to the upside. I am willing to take that chance. It would be just like me to pound the table on the long side, and then abandon the trade right before it goes parabolic.

There was no surprise in the ECB's monetary policy statement released moments ago, in which the central bank kept all three of its rates unchanged as expected, however it did confirm that QE is intended to to run "until the end of December 2017, or beyond, if necessary," and in a surprise addition added that "if the outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, the Governing Council stands ready to increase the programme in terms of size and/or duration."

S&P futures point to a slightly lower open, while Asian and European stocks are likewise modestly in the red. Trading volumes are muted for most markets on Monday with investors spooked by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Korean peninsula. It is also a holiday-shortened week in much of the West. As Bloomberg puts it, there is a "sense of unease" across markets, with global stocks mixed as investors weighed looming security risks and French bonds retreating ahead of the election following the surprising surge of far-leftist Melenchon in the polls.

Richard Breslow, former fund manager who currently writes for Bloomberg, starts of the week with a recap of how traders are reacting to the so-called key pain trades, and refuse to accept a shift in sentiment when it comes to the "dovish yet hawkish" Fed or the "hawkish yet dovish" ECB.

The Pain Trades Are Giving People Headaches

There does come a point when we just can’t seem to resist playing with our heads. It’s bad enough when others try to do it to you. But psyching oneself out is no way to make a living. Especially when you trade for a living.