Europe

Over the past several months we've frequently noted the devolving relationship between Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and billionaire financier George Soros.  Tensions escalated last month when Orban took it upon himself to mail a Soros-related questionnaire to all 8 million Hungarian voters (see: Hungary Launches Anti-Soros Political Campaign) and then followed that up with an announcement that Hungary's intelligence services had been instructed to "map" Soros' network of influence.

“When you turn an election into a three-ring circus, there is the possibility the dancing bear will win..”

After Sunday night's shocking failure by Merkel to from a government (triggered by the Free Democrats walking out due to irreconcilable differences on refugee policy, energy policy and tax policy) the FT was quick to conclude that "Merkel faces worst political crisis of her career." And while Merkel is certainly in hot water, a more appropriate question is what's next for Germany.

It's a relatively quiet, holiday-shortened (in the US) week, in which volumes are expected to grind lower as we head into the Thanksgiving holiday.

US index futures are unchanged, having recovered virtually all overnight session losses alongside the EURUSD following Merkel's failure to form a government, while European shares rise despite Angela Merkel's failure to form a new government. In the span of just hours, the goalseeked "hot take" consensus was that Germany’s collapsed coalition talks aren’t expected be a deal breaker for European equities due to the "strength of the German economy."

Having tumbled 80 pips to a one week low in kneejerk response to the late Sunday news that Angela Merkel had failed to form a government following the collapse of the "Jamaica Coalition" talks - when the Free Democratic Party walked out, saying the differences with the Green party were too great to bridge - both the Euro and European stocks have staged an impressive rebound, and the entire gap lower in the FX pair has now been, well, pared.