Federal Government

With the US markets closed today, market events this week will be dominated by G10 central bank meetings, among which the ECB stands out, but also notable will be the RBA, BoC and Riksbank. Consensus does not expect policy changes yet. There is also a busy calendar for the UK (PMIs, housing, IP and trade balance) along with GDP/IP releases elsewhere. In EMs, there will be monetary policy meetings in Brazil, Poland and Malaysia. Brazil BCB is expected to cut rates by 100bp.

Central bank preview:

With payrolls looming (our full preview is here), carbon-based traders around the globe are leery of putting on any major trades and so the overnight session has been rather dull, dominated by the now traditional overnight algo-mediated levitation, which means the VIX is lower and S&P futures are once again modest higher as European and Asian shares continue their ascent.

Under pressure from an avalanche of social media backlash, Politico has deleted a tweet containing a cartoon appearing to mock the survivors of Hurrican Harvey...

Drawn by Pulitzer Prize-winning cartoonist, Matt Wuerker, the cartoon shows a person in a Confederate flag shirt, thanking god for being rescued from a flooded house bearing a secessionist sign (and a Gadsden flag). The cartoonist's irony appears to be that the federal government sent the helicopter to rescue him.

As Wuerker tried to explain...

S&P futures are higher in early Wednesday trading, alongside Asian stocks and European bourses, both solidly in the green as the EURUSD drifts below the 1.20 "redline" while the dollar rebounds off a two and a half year low following the US "measured" response to North Korea’s missile test, which soothed jittery investors who now turn their focus to US economic data. Equity indexes in Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea also rose while 10Y US Treasuries are steady before the release of ADP employment and GDP data, both of which are expected to show an increase.

Global markets are stuck in a holding pattern with S&P futures up modestly after fluctuating overnight, as European and Asian shares rise with oil while the dollar has dipped lower ahead of the biggest central bank event of the year: the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium where Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi will speak at 10am and 3pm ET, respectively. Meanwhile, world stocks drifted toward their best week in six on Friday, as a near three-year high in emerging markets shares and a roaring rally in industrial metals bolstered the year’s global bull run.