In what Reuters has said was "an apparent sign of support just three days before the first round of an uncertain presidential election", French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron - and the market-friendly candidate preferred by Europe's establishment - spoke with former U.S. president Barack Obama on the phone on Thursday.
Yesterday, we presented a Deutsche Bank research report which tried to evaluate whether, despite polls suggesting otherwise, a Le Pen-Melenchon first round victory was possible in the French election this coming Sunday. In a surprising break from the conventional wisdom, this is what DB concluded:
Authored by Zaki Laidi via Project Syndicate,
In a few weeks, France will elect its next president. Given the French executive’s considerable powers, including the authority to dissolve the National Assembly, the presidential election, held every five years, is France’s most important. But the stakes are higher than ever this time.
Despite leading in the polls for Round One, The Express reports that a monumental computer blunder could cost Marine Le Pen the French general election as 500,000 citizens living outside of France have the chance to vote twice.
The election has become extremely close with just 4.5 percentage points separating Macron, Fillon, Mélenchon, and Le Pen...
With the rise of communist candidate Melenchon throwing the French election results into disarray for the status quo supporters, it appears traders are rushing headlong for the safety of core-core Europe and rapidly exiting anything to do with France.
As reported in our overnight wrap, the recent surge in far-left candidate Melenchon has changed the French presidential election calculus materially in recent days, sending the spread between French and German 10Y blowing out again, helped by yesterday's Goldman downgrade of French OATs.