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The Fed Has A Problem: Inflation May Hit 3.5% By December Due To Gas Price "Base Effect"

The Fed Has A Problem: Inflation May Hit 3.5% By December Due To Gas Price "Base Effect"

One of the officially stated reasons why the Fed delayed hiking rates so far, is because inflation in late 2015 and early 2016 has been lower than the Fed's bogey (as long as one does not look at core inflation, or such critical price levels as asking rents and health insurance). And, based at least on the CPI's basket weighing of headline input prices, the Fed may have been right: the main reason for this is that tumbling energy prices have resulted in a sharp drop in gasoline prices at the pump, one of the primary drivers of Headline CPI.

Why Natural Gas Prices Could Double From Here

Why Natural Gas Prices Could Double From Here

Submitted by Arthur Berman via OilPrice.com,

Natural gas prices should double over the next year.

Over-supply plus a warm 2015-2016 winter have resulted in low gas prices. That is about to change because supply is decreasing (Figure 1).

(Click to enlarge)

Figure 1. EIA U.S. natural gas supply balance and forecast. Production, consumption and supply balance values are 12-month moving averages. Source: EIA and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

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