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Shock Poll Shows Merkel Losing Chancellorship If Elections Held Today; JPMorgan Stunned

Shock Poll Shows Merkel Losing Chancellorship If Elections Held Today; JPMorgan Stunned

Overnight we reported that Germany's default swaps spiked to the highest level since Brexit as a recent poll showed that Merkel's lead in the polls had slid to multi-year lows ahead of Germany's elections later in the year, provoking some concerns that a formerly unthinkable "tail risk" outcome was becoming more likely. However, according to new data unveiled today, Merkel's headaches are only just starting, because in a brand new poll released this afternoon, the CDU would get 30% of the vote, while the suddenly resurgent SPD would get 31%.

Frontrunning: February 6

  • The Patriots’ Insane Comeback: One for the History Books (WSJ)
  • Euro fades in face of French election risks (Reuters)
  • Legal battles to test Trump and his travel ban (Reuters)
  • Standoff Looms Over Travel Ban; Trump Rips Judge (WSJ)
  • Trump Set to Attend NATO Summit in May (WSJ)
  • Trump Administration Aims to Sever Russia’s Iran Ties (WSJ)
  • Draghi Takes the Case for QE to Brussels (BBG)
  • Tiger Hedge Funds Become Wall Street Prey (WSJ)
  • Iran's missile test 'not a message' to Trump (Reuters)

German Default Risk Spikes To Highest Since Brexit As Merkel Lead Plunges To Multi-Year Low

German Default Risk Spikes To Highest Since Brexit As Merkel Lead Plunges To Multi-Year Low

Germany’s Social Democrats narrowed the gap with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s bloc to the closest in more than four years, reinforcing a poll bounce after they chose outsider Martin Schulz to challenge Europe’s longest-serving leader. As Bild reports, the 6-point surge in opposition support was the biggest ever recorded for the party... and may explain why German sovereign risk spiked to its highest since Brexit.

Schauble Agrees With Trump That Euro Is "Too Low" For Germany, Blames Mario Draghi

Schauble Agrees With Trump That Euro Is "Too Low" For Germany, Blames Mario Draghi

In surprising comments that may rekindle a verbal currency war between president Trump and Europe, German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble told German newspaper Tagesspiegel that in his opinion the Euro is "too low" for Germany, echoing criticism from Trump's trade advisor Peter Navarro, who last week told the FT that Germany was exploiting its US and EU partners by using a “grossly undervalued” euro to create a vast trade surplus.

Putting An End To This Hitler Nonsense...

Authored by Regi Hamm,

I am not an expert on Hitler. But my father is.

He toured post-war Germany extensively in 1957 and ’58 as a child performer. And he often recounts the stories. He befriended  teenage Lebensborn children (if you don’t know what Lebensborn children are …well …before you post anymore about Hitler you should read about them). He visited an SS widow and got a peek at her husband’s uniform and Luger (that he’d committed suicide with), she had stored in an old trunk, in the attic.

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